WTA ATP Aus Open 1/17 - 1/30 2022

[meganfernandez]

Now that the 2021 is over...
Predictions for AO 22-

Women:
Muguruza 30%
Sabalenka 20%
Osaka 20%
Barty 10%
The field 20%
Men, will wait for Djokovic !
If he plays,
Djokovic 40%
Zverev 30%
Medvedev 20%
Nadal 5%
The field 5%

WTA
first-time winner, 50%... Sabalenka, Badosa, Kontaveit, and Fernandez are my top contenders, in that order.
Everyone else is a crapshoot. Don't know how Osaka is doing, if Barty will handle the pressure better than 2020, if Muguruza will get injured or continue her up-and-down pattern.
Wide open.

ATP
Djokovic 50% if he shows up
Medvedev 45% ditto, can't remember if he is vaccinated or not
The field 5%

[ponchi101]

Now that the 2021 is over...
Predictions for AO 22-

Women:
Muguruza 30%
Sabalenka 20%
Osaka 20%
Barty 10%
The field 20%
Men, will wait for Djokovic !
If he plays,
Djokovic 40%
Zverev 30%
Medvedev 20%
Nadal 5%
The field 5%

You and I will never agree on the WTA
Muguruza, Sabalenka, Osaka, Barty: 5% each
Krejcikova, Kontaveit, Sakkari, Jabeur, Badosa: 4% each.
Field: 60%.
In the last 15 slams, we have had 9 first time winners, and several first time finalists too.
If Djokovic plays, 35%
Medvedev, Zverev: 30% each
The rest, including Rafa if he plays: 5%
The ATP is the polar opposite of the WTA.

[meganfernandez]

Now that the 2021 is over...
Predictions for AO 22-

Women:
Muguruza 30%
Sabalenka 20%
Osaka 20%
Barty 10%
The field 20%
Men, will wait for Djokovic !
If he plays,
Djokovic 40%
Zverev 30%
Medvedev 20%
Nadal 5%
The field 5%

You and I will never agree on the WTA
Muguruza, Sabalenka, Osaka, Barty: 5% each
Krejcikova, Kontaveit, Sakkari, Jabeur, Badosa: 4% each.
Field: 60%.
In the last 15 slams, we have had 9 first time winners, and several first time finalists too.
If Djokovic plays, 35%
Medvedev, Zverev: 30% each
The rest, including Rafa if he plays: 5%
The ATP is the polar opposite of the WTA.

I think you are both giving Zverev a bit too much respect with more or equal chance as Medvedev. Where's this coming from? Just a sense that he's playing well and is due? I don't believe in the "due" concept. Djokovic and Medvedev consistently outperform him in best of 5 on hard court. Sascha's knocking on the door but I'd give him a 10% chance maybe if both Novak and Medvedev play.

[ponchi101]

He gave Novak a good fight at the USO, which, I believe, was the reason Novak lost the final.
He beat Medvedev at the WTF, and could have beaten him twice with a little luck. So I really do not see, right now, too much difference between Zverev and Medvedev, in terms of possibilities. And he is getting his confidence back in his serve, which was his weakness in 2020.
I agree with you with the "due" concept. It has failed too many times. But he is playing well, so I don't mind giving him the same chance as Danill.
If Novak shows up, this will be one of those slams in which the draw will be very important. Wherever #3 lands will be huge for the finals.
Notice, too, how we are not even talking about Tsisipas, Berrettinni, Rublev or any other. It is telling, either of our myopia, or the separation between the top three and the rest.

[ashkor87]

He gave Novak a good fight at the USO, which, I believe, was the reason Novak lost the final.
He beat Medvedev at the WTF, and could have beaten him twice with a little luck. So I really do not see, right now, too much difference between Zverev and Medvedev, in terms of possibilities. And he is getting his confidence back in his serve, which was his weakness in 2020.
I agree with you with the "due" concept. It has failed too many times. But he is playing well, so I don't mind giving him the same chance as Danill.
If Novak shows up, this will be one of those slams in which the draw will be very important. Wherever #3 lands will be huge for the finals.
Notice, too, how we are not even talking about Tsisipas, Berrettinni, Rublev or any other. It is telling, either of our myopia, or the separation between the top three and the rest.

Generally agree with you there, on zverev..he is getting more confident, his serve will get him cheap points against anybody...Also, depends on how fast or slow the courts are (unknown factor for now): if they are slow, Medvedev will find it difficult to put the point away, except on serve..Zverev knows how to grind it out...I guess I am expecting courts much slower than the USO

[ashkor87]

Now that the 2021 is over...
Predictions for AO 22-

Women:
Muguruza 30%
Sabalenka 20%
Osaka 20%
Barty 10%
The field 20%
Men, will wait for Djokovic !
If he plays,
Djokovic 40%
Zverev 30%
Medvedev 20%
Nadal 5%
The field 5%

You and I will never agree on the WTA
Muguruza, Sabalenka, Osaka, Barty: 5% each
Krejcikova, Kontaveit, Sakkari, Jabeur, Badosa: 4% each.
Field: 60%.
In the last 15 slams, we have had 9 first time winners, and several first time finalists too.
If Djokovic plays, 35%
Medvedev, Zverev: 30% each
The rest, including Rafa if he plays: 5%
The ATP is the polar opposite of the WTA.

Yes, true that we have had several first-timers but was any of them such a surprise? Even Kenin had beaten Serena at RG, Woz was always knocking at the door..if, say, Vondrousova or Mertens had won, i would have been surprised..Jen Brady, I am surprised but she didn't really challenge Osaka in the finals (as a Bruin, I cheered for her, of course, to no avail)

[ashkor87]

Now that the 2021 is over...
Predictions for AO 22-

Women:
Muguruza 30%
Sabalenka 20%
Osaka 20%
Barty 10%
The field 20%
Men, will wait for Djokovic !
If he plays,
Djokovic 40%
Zverev 30%
Medvedev 20%
Nadal 5%
The field 5%

You and I will never agree on the WTA
Muguruza, Sabalenka, Osaka, Barty: 5% each
Krejcikova, Kontaveit, Sakkari, Jabeur, Badosa: 4% each.
Field: 60%.
In the last 15 slams, we have had 9 first time winners, and several first time finalists too.
If Djokovic plays, 35%
Medvedev, Zverev: 30% each
The rest, including Rafa if he plays: 5%
The ATP is the polar opposite of the WTA.

Yes, true that we have had several first-timers but was any of them such a surprise? Even Kenin had beaten Serena at RG, Woz was always knocking at the door..if, say, Vondrousova or Mertens had won, i would have been surprised..Jen Brady, I am surprised but she didn't really challenge Osaka in the finals (as a Bruin, I cheered for her, of course, to no avail)

[ashkor87]

To be more specific:
2011 - Kim Clijsters
2012 - vika - she had already pushed Serena hard the previous year and shown her ability
2013 - vika
2014 -LiNa - runner up the previous year
2015-:Serena - no comment required
2016 - kerber
2017 - Serena
2018 - Wozniacki (had just won the YEC)
2019 - Osaka (already USO champion)
2020 - kenin, yes, a bit of a surprise
2021 - Osaka
It hasn't been as much of a free for all as we think .in hindsight, we should have seen them all coming, except Kenin, perhaps!

[meganfernandez]

He gave Novak a good fight at the USO, which, I believe, was the reason Novak lost the final.
He beat Medvedev at the WTF, and could have beaten him twice with a little luck. So I really do not see, right now, too much difference between Zverev and Medvedev, in terms of possibilities. And he is getting his confidence back in his serve, which was his weakness in 2020.
I agree with you with the "due" concept. It has failed too many times. But he is playing well, so I don't mind giving him the same chance as Danill.
If Novak shows up, this will be one of those slams in which the draw will be very important. Wherever #3 lands will be huge for the finals.
Notice, too, how we are not even talking about Tsisipas, Berrettinni, Rublev or any other. It is telling, either of our myopia, or the separation between the top three and the rest.

I think it's the separation. Novak and Medvedev have better results. They have proven they can come through. I believe Sascha can realistically beat either of those guys on hard court in B5, but I think the chances of it actually happening are fairly low. Lower than 50/50.

Agree about Sascha's serve. Just not sure about his nerve.

I don't think Rublev, Berrettini, or Tsitsipas can realistically do it in B5. It would be a pretty big upset. Tsitsipas only because he's coming back from a surgery, but it appears to have been pretty minor, so maybe he's okay. I give Hurkacz as good a chance as those guys since he beat Federer at Wimbledon and has a big upset under his belt. I feel like Berrettini should be able to win those quarters and semis, too. I don't know what it is about the matchup with Novak that tips the scale for him so much. Maybe his return but I also think it's a lack of Matteo's belief. At both Wimbledon and the US Open, Berrettini won the first set against Novak then lost 4, 4, and 3 and 2, 2, and 3. At the French, Novak got him in four also, 6-3, 6-2, 6-7, 7-5. If Berrettini can get through a draw without having to play Novak, I think he can win.

[meganfernandez]

Now that the 2021 is over...
Predictions for AO 22-

Women:
Muguruza 30%
Sabalenka 20%
Osaka 20%
Barty 10%
The field 20%
Men, will wait for Djokovic !
If he plays,
Djokovic 40%
Zverev 30%
Medvedev 20%
Nadal 5%
The field 5%

You and I will never agree on the WTA
Muguruza, Sabalenka, Osaka, Barty: 5% each
Krejcikova, Kontaveit, Sakkari, Jabeur, Badosa: 4% each.
Field: 60%.
In the last 15 slams, we have had 9 first time winners, and several first time finalists too.
If Djokovic plays, 35%
Medvedev, Zverev: 30% each
The rest, including Rafa if he plays: 5%
The ATP is the polar opposite of the WTA.

Yes, true that we have had several first-timers but was any of them such a surprise? Even Kenin had beaten Serena at RG, Woz was always knocking at the door..if, say, Vondrousova or Mertens had won, i would have been surprised..Jen Brady, I am surprised but she didn't really challenge Osaka in the finals (as a Bruin, I cheered for her, of course, to no avail)

I think a lot of the first-timers were a surprise (if not a shock, like Raducano and Swiatek) because they hadn't been knocking at the door in Slams - six of the nine first-time winners hasn't been past R16. Wozniacki and Halep had a lot of success, of course, and Barty had been to the previous Slam QF. But that's it. Also, those draws they came through were stacked with Slam winners. I was always expecting experience to win out, and I was so wrong.

We'll see if this trend continues. I think Sabalenka will get one soon.

[ashkor87]

Now that the 2021 is over...
Predictions for AO 22-

Women:
Muguruza 30%
Sabalenka 20%
Osaka 20%
Barty 10%
The field 20%
Men, will wait for Djokovic !
If he plays,
Djokovic 40%
Zverev 30%
Medvedev 20%
Nadal 5%
The field 5%

WTA
first-time winner, 50%... Sabalenka, Badosa, Kontaveit, and Fernandez are my top contenders, in that order.
Everyone else is a crapshoot. Don't know how Osaka is doing, if Barty will handle the pressure better than 2020, if Muguruza will get injured or continue her up-and-down pattern.
Wide open.

ATP
Djokovic 50% if he shows up
Medvedev 45% ditto, can't remember if he is vaccinated or not
The field 5%

Yes, I agree Kontaveit in particular could be the surprise packet..
As usual, given my pet theme, I think the court will be too slow for Fernandes, probably suit Sabalenka best..except Sabalenka does not seem to have learned to stay calm when the finish line is near...she will get over it, though, some day..as for the rest, I think Badosa is a mite over-rated, like Svtolina..

[Deuce]

Yes, I agree Kontaveit in particular could be the surprise packet..
As usual, given my pet theme, I think the court will be too slow for Fernandes, probably suit Sabalenka best..except Sabalenka does not seem to have learned to stay calm when the finish line is near...she will get over it, though, some day..as for the rest, I think Badosa is a mite over-rated, like Svtolina..

Leylah won the Junior Roland Garros. She generally is fine with slower courts.
That said, I don't see her making a noticeable run at the Aussie Open - mostly due to outside factors such as the amount of attention and media requests, etc. she'll get right away from the start still being new to her. That takes time to adapt to. At the U.S. Open, it was like a dream, with her just floating on a cloud. But now that she's come back down to Earth, it'll be interesting to see how she deals with all the attention at a big tournament from even before she steps onto a court for the first time.

Sabalenka... no. I wouldn't be surprised if she never breaks through to win a Major.

[ashkor87]

Re Leylah, I don't think her game works well on slower courts..at the USO, she displayed incredible reflexes, agility and foot speed-- not the power and endurance it takes to win when you have to hit the ball ten times to win a point..but let us not rehash this metaphysical debate, we shall see how it pans out, and anyway we don't have any clue yet what the conditions will be like at Melbourne..

[Deuce]

The U.S. Open was one tournament - and probably the only time that many people have seen Leylah play. And that's fine. But she shouldn't be defined only by that one tournament.
I've watched her for a few years, and I know that she'll adapt and do what it takes on any surface. If there is a weakness in terms of surface, it would be grass - simply due to lack of experience on it. But she's certainly not the only one to whom that applies, as opportunities to play on grass are rare for almost everyone.

[ashkor87]

The U.S. Open was one tournament - and probably the only time that many people have seen Leylah play. And that's fine. But she shouldn't be defined only by that one tournament.
I've watched her for a few years, and I know that she'll adapt and do what it takes on any surface. If there is a weakness in terms of surface, it would be grass - simply due to lack of experience on it. But she's certainly not the only one to whom that applies, as opportunities to play on grass are rare for almost everyone.

Would be great to see..one can certainly adapt, on a slow surface she could come to the net more, that would neutralize her power deficit..and so on.