Horse Racing Random

[dryrunguy]

Kentucky Derby prep alert... 2-year-old Flightline put in a FREAKISH performance in the Grade 1 Malibu at Santa Anita today. In his first two races at 6 furlongs, he put up Equibase speed figures of 116 and 130 winning at 13 1/4 lengths an 12 3/4 lengths respectively. I have NEVER seen a 130 speed figure. NEVER.

Today in the Malibu, he went 7 furlongs. It was a royal ass-kicking. Again. Today he won at 11 1/2 lengths and looked eager to take another lap around the track.

Absolutely freakish. And I buy it. He's not a Baffert horse. He's a John Sadler horse owned by West Point Thoroughbreds.

[dryrunguy]

About Flightline's race yesterday in the Malibu, he put up an Equibase speed figure of 127. That's insane.

[dryrunguy]

Rock Along has been sold privately for a paltry $14000. Apparently she did not come out of her last race well. The injury is fairly minor, but it will take time to heal. It is unclear if she will race again. The buyer (I don't know who it is) is buying her primarily as a brood mare prospect. But she's at least a year away from being ready to breed. I am really quite disappointed that the partnership sold her so cheap, but perhaps selling her now is the more prudent option compared to racking up huge vet and boarding fees that would probably come close to equaling what she's really worth--with nothing coming in.

Unconscious will race again in about 3 weeks. She came out of her last race just fine. BTW, the winner of that race set a new track record for that distance and surface. That said, the tapeta synthetic track at Gulfstream has only been around for a few months, so I wouldn't put much stock in that.

[dryrunguy]

A few updates.

Danceswithbourbon will go through the sale ring at Keeneland on Thursday, January 13. I don't know what RNA (Reserve Not Attained--that's a fancy way of saying minimum sales price) has been set on her. Whatever the RNA is, if she fetches that price or more, she sells. If she doesn't get a bid that high, then we keep her. She is being sold as a brood mare prospect rather than a horse of racing age. She is Hip #1295 out of about 1500 horses scheduled to go through the ring between now and Thursday.

Unconscious will also race for the second time on Thursday, Race 5 at Gulfstream, 5.5 furlongs on the tapeta. Claiming price is $16000. I think she looks good in this spot. I see only one other horse with experience in the field that might beat her. That said, I am not wild about the extra half furlong since she was a speed and fade runner in her debut, but she should have more endurance this time. Also, there's the issue of the other second-time starters (remember what Cryptic Creed did in his second start?), not to mention the first-time starters. They are basically unknowns, so you can only go by the quality of the connections, auction prices (if any), the published training works, and the pedigree. But all in all, I think she looks pretty live in this spot. We'll see.

[ponchi101]

Good luck.
The world of horse racing does not cease to amaze me. To say it is complex is a serious understatement.

[dryrunguy]

My mistake. DWB will not go through the sales ring until TOMORROW (Friday). I watched a bit of the sale this morning. A lot of the horses are selling very, very cheap (e.g., $4000). But every once in a while, one will come in and sell for some astronomical price. For example, a pregnant mare sold for $480,000 about 10 minutes ago. I have a feeling, we'll be keeping DWB, unless we can manage a private sale.

Meanwhile, the guy who does the morning line at Gulfstream put Unconscious at 8/1. He has a first-time starter as the morning line favorite. The filly I thought was in the best position to beat Unconscious is 15/1. So either I am missing something (which is totally possible as I have not checked any of the training works for the horses in the field), or Pete completely botched the morning line for that race (which is also possible; a lot of folks are critical of the job Pete does in making the morning line). I'll take a closer look later. Post time is 2:31 EST. Jesus Rios will ride--that's the same guy who rode Cryptic Creed to his maiden win.

[Fastbackss]

I like that you know the name of the guy making the lines haha

"GD it Pete, not again!"

[dryrunguy]

I like that you know the name of the guy making the lines haha

"GD it Pete, not again!"

Ha! Yes, Pete Aielo. He's also the track announcer at Gulfstream and is without a doubt one of the most entertaining race callers in the U.S. My favorite is when you have a wall of about 5 horses neck and neck down the stretch, and Pete screams, "Who do you like here?!?!?!?!?!?!?" He's also not afraid to have fun with the horses' names during the call.

::

Unconscious ran well today but could not hold off the 3 horse. She finished 4 1/2 lengths behind War of Ages (a second-time starter ridden by Paco Lopez) and it was a dead heat for second with the 7, a first-time starter. The horse I liked that was 15/1 on the morning line went off as the post-time favorite at 3/1. But she finished WAY back in sixth. So maybe Pete was right and the bettors were wrong! Unfortunately, the dead heat really sapped her check because the purse money for second and third had to be split in two. So her check will only be $3450 minus the trainer and jockey fees.

Unconscious was the only horse claimed. The price was $16000. She was purchased by an outfit called Soldi Stables with Gilberto Zerpa listed as the new trainer. He wins races at a 20% clip, so it is a well-respected barn at Gulfstream. That said, he did get suspended for 10 days back in October for a medication violation, so that's a little concerning. But so did four other trainers, and they all have impeccable reputations. It could have been accidental.

So that's the end of the 2021 Shooting Star syndicate (the cheap horse syndicate). I will lose money again, though I'm not sure how much. I think it will pay out slightly better than 2020.

::

Unfortunately, there was an incident during Unconscious' race. She took the lead from the gate, but there was a horse right behind her and to the inside. I have no idea what happened, but the jockey of the 4, Miguel Vasquez, fell off the horse for what appeared to be no reason. The horse never stumbled and was fine. But, since the 4 was close to the lead, that means there were about 8 horses behind her, so Miguel was in serious danger of getting trampled or causing an accident. Fortunately, all the other horses missed him, probably because he fell close to the rail.

Miguel was treated by the ambulance and then taken by wheelchair for further evaluation and treatment. Later, it was reported that the horse he was riding kicked the top of his helmet. So he was lucky.

I'll post the video once it's available on YouTube.

[dryrunguy]

Here's today's race. They deleted the part where Miguel was dismounted.

First, though, I need to explain to you how the various tracks are currently working at Gulfstream. Because it's a pip, and it underscores why Unconscious pretty much lost any chance to win while on the backstretch.

The TURF course at Gulfstream is playing very fair. You can win gate-to-wire, or you can close from the skies. It's very fair.

The DIRT course is strongly favoring inside speed or speed from the outside that can get out to the lead and claim the rail. It's not the ONLY way to win on the dirt at Gulfstream, but there's definitely a rail bias.

The SYNTHETIC course is pretty much the opposite. If you get the lead on the backstretch, there's basically no chance you'll be able to keep it. Someone, or a group of someones, will pass you. And that's exactly what happened today. Plus, you want to stay off the rail on the stretch. You want to be at least 2 or 3 paths off the rail. This part, Unconscious got pretty close to right. She was out in about path 3 or so. But she didn't have enough left to finish the last 1/2 furlong or so, an that left room for Paco to pass her on the outside and then move inside to the best path off the rail. Unconscious was visibly tired during the last 1/2 furlong or so.

[Fastbackss]

Is the syndicate happy that unconscious was claimed?

[dryrunguy]

Is the syndicate happy that unconscious was claimed?

Yes. The objective of the 2021 syndicate was to sell the horses by or around the end of the year and to pay out to the investors.

I will qualify that by saying I am NOT happy with the price at which Rock Along was sold.

::

That said, I think the syndicate is learning. The 2022 syndicate has been changed. The 2-year-olds will stay in the syndicate until June 2023, so it will include part of their 3-year-old season. It will better accommodate horses that need more time and give them more time to race and develop.

It is an experiment. I do not know if it will work. But I appreciate the experimentation.

And the fact there's a gray filly in the 2022-2023 syndicate appeals to me. More than it should.

[ti-amie]

I have always loved gray horses. I used to follow horse racing just to see the beautiful animals run when I was much younger.

[dryrunguy]

Well, I can report that the RNA for Danceswithbourbon was $15000--and she didn't get it. So back to square 1.

[dryrunguy]

I just won the late Pick 5 at Oaklawn Park. Easily the biggest score of my short betting career. It wasn't easy. I survived a jockey objection and a snotbubble photo finish. But the stars aligned.

[dryrunguy]

Popcorn Deelights, the horse that played Seabiscuit in the movie Seabiscuit, passed away this morning at Old Friends Farm in Kentucky. He was 24 years old.