'22 RG Day 1 OoP & Discussion

[ti-amie]

[Deuce]

But now the momentum has completely - and shockingly - shifted...
Mladenovic has just broken Leylah twice, and is up 3-0 in the 2nd.

Mladenovic came out inspired in the 2nd (either that, or the crowd threatened her after her wholly UNinspired 1st set). Leylah has lost focus - which occurs very rarely - and is missing a lot.
The crowd is getting more and more vocally supportive of Mladenovic. And the crowd will probably grow as word spreads around the tournament that this could possibly be a match.

[ponchi101]

The problem for me is that there is a pattern. Mugu has been wining first sets handily, and then it is not that the wheels fall off; it is the wheels, the engine, the transmission, everything. She falls apart terribly.
And this was quick (meaning the way the match played out). I saw she was up, started doing a couple of things (and, of course, ESPN L. America will rather show a Div4 Peruvian soccer match than actually show women's tennis, so I can't watch the match), and then you guys posted that she had lost. In a blink.
I guess the sole thing she is good for is for YCWJ. She is becoming a solid wooden spoon contender.

Speaking of harsh....You know you forever confuse me with your Garbine "fandom"

I try to be objective. I am not one of those fans that when my fave is not performing, I can't see it. When they misbehave, when they do something petulant, I gather I can still look at them call it what it is.
I like Garbiñe because, as I once said, she is a dead ringer for my very first GF and she is a fun person. Her videos and posts are fun. I also like her tennis, but it is not my favorite style of them all. So I am a fan, but I am not enamored of her. And you have to admit, she has not been playing anything remotely close to good tennis lately.

[JazzNU]

Speaking of harsh....You know you forever confuse me with your Garbine "fandom"

I try to be objective. I am not one of those fans that when my fave is not performing, I can't see it. When they misbehave, when they do something petulant, I gather I can still look at them call it what it is.
I like Garbiñe because, as I once said, she is a dead ringer for my very first GF and she is a fun person. Her videos and posts are fun. I also like her tennis, but it is not my favorite style of them all. So I am a fan, but I am not enamored of her. And you have to admit, she has not been playing anything remotely close to good tennis lately.

I think you are anything but objective where Garbine is concerned. You've picked her as one of your favorites to win RG a few weeks ago (and I believe did the same last year). But she hasn't been to a clay court final of any level since her RG win. That's the thought of a fan who is not evaluating objectively to me. But also, when she loses, whew! Some of the criticisms are unduly harsh to me, like saying she's good for YCWJ and nothing else.

Also, I'd argue that she's playing pretty good tennis in parts of her matches lately, but is having a lot of problems closing out sets and matches and so her results are dismal of late. I haven't watched all of them, but it has been a trend with the ones that I've watched, where she should've won the match, had the advantage and lost. In some cases, rolling over an opponent in the opening set, only to suddenly struggle late in the second. Not saying it's good, not saying it's not a worrying trend, I'm saying I wouldn't throw her to the woodshed for this rough patch. Also, for me at least, losing to Kaia Kanepi is one of her better losses, so it certainly wouldn't inspire me to criticize her harshly for this one.

[ponchi101]

Speaking of harsh....You know you forever confuse me with your Garbine "fandom"

I try to be objective. I am not one of those fans that when my fave is not performing, I can't see it. When they misbehave, when they do something petulant, I gather I can still look at them call it what it is.
I like Garbiñe because, as I once said, she is a dead ringer for my very first GF and she is a fun person. Her videos and posts are fun. I also like her tennis, but it is not my favorite style of them all. So I am a fan, but I am not enamored of her. And you have to admit, she has not been playing anything remotely close to good tennis lately.

I think you are anything but objective where Garbine is concerned. You've picked her as one of your favorites to win RG a few weeks ago (and I believe did the same last year). But she hasn't been to a clay court final of any level since her RG win. That's the thought of a fan who is not evaluating objectively to me. But also, when she loses, whew! Some of the criticisms are unduly harsh to me, like saying she's good for YCWJ and nothing else.

Also, I'd argue that she's playing pretty good tennis in parts of her matches lately, but is having a lot of problems closing out sets and matches and so her results are dismal of late. I haven't watched all of them, but it has been a trend with the ones that I've watched, where she should've won the match, had the advantage and lost. In some cases, rolling over an opponent in the opening set, only to suddenly struggle late in the second. Not saying it's good, not saying it's not a worrying trend, I'm saying I wouldn't throw her to the woodshed for this rough patch. Also, for me at least, losing to Kaia Kanepi is one of her better losses, so it certainly wouldn't inspire me to criticize her harshly for this one.

When did I pick her to win RG? I gave her a 2.5% chance of winning it, together with Ons (and two more that I am not going to look up) and did make the point that the sole reason I would give her that much was because she is a former champion.
Also, if because I say she is becoming wooden spoon material, and right now, she is in the run for that, plus I say so while putting a cry-emoji, meaning I am not happy about that state of her tennis, you conclude that I am not being objective... well. I hope she wins Wimby and we will all rejoice.

[JazzNU]

That was a good win for Leylah. Not sure if that had gone to 3, who would win it, which is shocking since I rarely think anything positive about Kiki in singles these days. But she played a much better 2nd set and with that late break, looked like she was maybe going to be able to force a 3rd set. And with a small, but loud and involved crowd firmly in her favor, it wouldn't have necessarily been easy for Leylah. But Leylah clearly got very pissed at herself for dropping her serve late in the 2nd, and fixed that in short order.

Think Leylah did win a decent fans in the post-match interview though. She should definitely keep speaking in French. The applause for her win was tepid at best. After her animated interview, it was boisterous applause.

[meganfernandez]

But now the momentum has completely - and shockingly - shifted...
Mladenovic has just broken Leylah twice, and is up 3-0 in the 2nd.

Mladenovic came out inspired in the 2nd (either that, or the crowd threatened her after her wholly UNinspired 1st set). Leylah has lost focus - which occurs very rarely - and is missing a lot.
The crowd is getting more and more vocally supportive of Mladenovic. And the crowd will probably grow as word spreads around the tournament that this could possibly be a match.

Leylah Fernandez, tough as ever. Fends off set points at 3-5 and reels off four games in a row. I want to see the Leylah-Andreescu R3 match.

[meganfernandez]

I could take that if she were a 21 yo rookie. But she is a 28 yo veteran, with Slams on her belt. Good for her that she is not talking despair or serious doubts, but the team has to figure out what is going on.
Conchita has proven to be a reliable figure, so I gather they will figure out what is happening. Correcting it will be a separate matter.

Yeah, they have to work on it. I'm glad to hear Muguruza acknowledge the issue. Sounds like she knows she needs some confidence. I have faith in Conchita... Hoping for a good result on grass.

[JazzNU]

[
When did I pick her to win RG? I gave her a 2.5% chance of winning it, together with Ons (and two more that I am not going to look up) and did make the point that the sole reason I would give her that much was because she is a former champion.
Also, if because I say she is becoming wooden spoon material, and right now, she is in the run for that, plus I say so while putting a cry-emoji, meaning I am not happy about that state of her tennis, you conclude that I am not being objective... well. I hope she wins Wimby and we will all rejoice.

Thus making her one of your favorites to win. How many players did you list? Like maybe 4? I'm not saying you said she'd win over Swiatek, you didn't. But yeah, you picked her as one of your favorites, gave her individual odds to win and didn't include her with the field.

But also, I was giving a recent example of something. You are of course aware, I've mentioned this before.

And yes, you definitely said you were putting Muguruza there only because she was a former champion. But I don't recall Ostapenko being listed alongside her, which is my point.

[Deuce]

Leylah needs to keep her foot on the accelerator when she's got her opponent down. After a 6-0 1st set, the natural tendency is to expect a 6-0 2nd set... but it rarely pans out that way. After an easy set like that, she needs to get herself to believe that the next set will be extremely hard fought. Not easy to do, but it would be most beneficial.

Leylah did a good job of re-gaining her focus and composure... but I think Mladenovic faded in the second half of the 2nd set, as well. The crowd was inspiring her for the first part of the set, but then she seemed to get nervous, perhaps thinking too much about the crowd's expectations of her.

Leylah's French is a little more fluent than her English, so there's no problem with her speaking French in Paris (or Spanish in Mexico, or English in the U.S.)...

[ponchi101]

Because I would give Ostapenko negative percentage points of winning. Ashkor was talking about who we thought had a chance and I simply said, well, let's look at some people that MAYBE can challenge Iga. I am sorry I did not include a regression analysis and some Bayesian formulas but, giving somebody 2.5% chance of winning an event is about the same as saying "I can see a black swan in the horizon".
Jazznu, if it upsets you that I think that Garbiñe is playing terrible tennis, ok. But she is 7/9 for the year, and has lost 5 matches after winning the first set.
For a two time slam champion still in the prime of her physical abilities, that is not good. Not one bit.

[JazzNU]

Because I would give Ostapenko negative percentage points of winning. Ashkor was talking about who we thought had a chance and I simply said, well, let's look at some people that MAYBE can challenge Iga. I am sorry I did not include a regression analysis and some Bayesian formulas but, giving somebody 2.5% chance of winning an event is about the same as saying "I can see a black swan in the horizon".
Jazznu, if it upsets you that I think that Garbiñe is playing terrible tennis, ok. But she is 7/9 for the year, and has lost 5 matches after winning the first set.
For a two time slam champion still in the prime of her physical abilities, that is not good. Not one bit.

It doesn't upset me. I've said it before to both you and Megan. You're openly her biggest fans on here, but the harshest criticisms also come from you guys. It's odd to see it from people who are big fans of hers is all. And you say that about Ostapenko, but she's also unquestionably had a better year than Muguruza.

And maybe you look at odds differently than I do. In betting here, when you give any odds, you're placing them as a bigger favorite than the field. So it's not just a throwaway. So, for instance, if you give any percentage whatsoever to the Warriors, Celtics, Lakers, Hawks and then broadly to the field, then you have favored the Hawks and Lakers as more of a title favorite than the Bucks, the Nuggets, and the Sixers. So your giving her specific odds of any kind even if it seems small, did stand out as being highly favorable to her chances.

[meganfernandez]

Because I would give Ostapenko negative percentage points of winning. Ashkor was talking about who we thought had a chance and I simply said, well, let's look at some people that MAYBE can challenge Iga. I am sorry I did not include a regression analysis and some Bayesian formulas but, giving somebody 2.5% chance of winning an event is about the same as saying "I can see a black swan in the horizon".
Jazznu, if it upsets you that I think that Garbiñe is playing terrible tennis, ok. But she is 7/9 for the year, and has lost 5 matches after winning the first set.
For a two time slam champion still in the prime of her physical abilities, that is not good. Not one bit.

It doesn't upset me. I've said it before to both you and Megan. You're openly her biggest fans on here, but the harshest criticisms also come from you guys. It's odd to see it from people who are big fans of hers is all. And you say that about Ostapenko, but she's also unquestionably had a better year than Muguruza.

And maybe you look at odds differently than I do. In betting here, when you give any odds, you're placing them as a bigger favorite than the field. So it's not just a throwaway. So, for instance, if you give any percentage whatsoever to the Warriors, Celtics, Lakers, Hawks and then broadly to the field, then you have favored the Hawks and Lakers as more of a title favorite than the Bucks, the Nuggets, and the Sixers. So your giving her specific odds of any kind even if it seems small, did stand out as being highly favorable to her chances.

I am guilty of being hard on Mugu, more so in the past. I’ve adjusted my expectations, and have a pretty different perspective on general success/effort/etc. these days. But yeah, her shortcomings and streakiness got under my skin more so than any other player in the last few years.

She could be a fixture in the top 5, and I wish she would. But that’s how it goes. Certainly doesn’t negate any of her excellent accomplishments. I still think she might have more good results. The game is still there. We’ll see.

The latest string of losing control of matches against lesser players is problematic. But hey, it’s tennis. Opponents can turn matches around. Other than today’s match, I didn’t see the others she had lost after having a commanding lead and the edge. Really it’s hard to judge performances by the score alone.