ATP WTA Wimbledon GS 6/27/22 - 7/10/22

[ashkor87]

It's not a rule, though. This year could be an exception.

yes, could be that the towering giants like Serena and Venus, who have won it 9 times in the last 21 years between them, has been inhibiting the rise of others.. but still, I do feel that it takes 'class' to win Wimbledon - you need to be someone who can win multiple majors.
In fact, there have been very few first time winners, in the sense of someone who had never won a major before - Kvitova in 2011, Bartoli in 2013 and Sharapova in 2004..and except for Bartoli, the others went on to win other majors..
so I think someone like Leylah could have won, because she is clearly a future champion, or someone like Raducanu.. but with their injuries, who knows.. I would have considered Alexandrova, but she is out anyway...
so overall, I still think Swiatek will win - 50% probability, the rest of the field 50%.. of whom Osaka and Andreescu are the best..

[Deuce]

It's not a rule, though. This year could be an exception.

yes, could be that the towering giants like Serena and Venus, who have won it 9 times in the last 21 years between them, has been inhibiting the rise of others.. but still, I do feel that it takes 'class' to win Wimbledon - you need to be someone who can win multiple majors.

^ You said that this year's Wimbledon is "an exhibition tournament" (and I agree).
But now, you're writing as if this year's Wimbledon is no different from previous Wimbledons. I disagree. I think that, due to the no Russians/no Belarusian/no points, this year's tournament will have a very different feel - both among fans and among players - than the normal Wimbledon has.

In fact, there have been very few first time winners, in the sense of someone who had never won a major before - Kvitova in 2011, Bartoli in 2013 and Sharapova in 2004..and except for Bartoli, the others went on to win other majors..

^ ... A guy named Federer also won his first Major at Wimbledon.

so I think someone like Leylah could have won, because she is clearly a future champion, or someone like Raducanu.. but with their injuries, who knows..

^ Leylah needs much more experience on grass to be considered a threat at Wimbledon anytime soon. And she won't get that experience this year.

so overall, I still think Swiatek will win - 50% probability, the rest of the field 50%.. of whom Osaka and Andreescu are the best..

^ Neither Osaka or Andreescu has shown me anything recently (the past 6 months or so) to make me think that one or both would be a serious threat at Wimbledon this year.

I continue to hope that all players will withdraw from Wimbledon the day before the tournament begins in protest against the unfair and discriminatory ban of Russians and Belarusian players.

[ponchi101]

It's not a rule, though. This year could be an exception.

yes, could be that the towering giants like Serena and Venus, who have won it 9 times in the last 21 years between them, has been inhibiting the rise of others.. but still, I do feel that it takes 'class' to win Wimbledon - you need to be someone who can win multiple majors.
In fact, there have been very few first time winners, in the sense of someone who had never won a major before - Kvitova in 2011, Bartoli in 2013 and Sharapova in 2004..and except for Bartoli, the others went on to win other majors..
...

I decided to check how many 1 time winners Wimbledon has had in the open era, and you may be onto something: Conchita, Novotna and Bartoli. By that I mean players that won only one slam, and it was at Wimby. By comparison, the USO has 6: Sabatini, Stosur, Penneta, Sloane, Bianca and Emma, with the last three still playing.
So yes, to win Wimbledon you most likely need something else. But this year, the four former champions in the draw (unless Venus gets her WC) are all playing sub-par. I can see Kerber doing well, but Halep, Mugu and Petra have to be considered very long-shots.

[ashkor87]

It's not a rule, though. This year could be an exception.

yes, could be that the towering giants like Serena and Venus, who have won it 9 times in the last 21 years between them, has been inhibiting the rise of others.. but still, I do feel that it takes 'class' to win Wimbledon - you need to be someone who can win multiple majors.
In fact, there have been very few first time winners, in the sense of someone who had never won a major before - Kvitova in 2011, Bartoli in 2013 and Sharapova in 2004..and except for Bartoli, the others went on to win other majors..
...

I decided to check how many 1 time winners Wimbledon has had in the open era, and you may be onto something: Conchita, Novotna and Bartoli. By that I mean players that won only one slam, and it was at Wimby. By comparison, the USO has 6: Sabatini, Stosur, Penneta, Sloane, Bianca and Emma, with the last three still playing.
So yes, to win Wimbledon you most likely need something else. But this year, the four former champions in the draw (unless Venus gets her WC) are all playing sub-par. I can see Kerber doing well, but Halep, Mugu and Petra have to be considered very long-shots.

Thanks for checking ...you have substantiated what I only guessed. Btw even Bartoli had to retire with a severe injury soon after winning W, so she may have gone on to win another one ..

[meganfernandez]

It's not a rule, though. This year could be an exception.

yes, could be that the towering giants like Serena and Venus, who have won it 9 times in the last 21 years between them, has been inhibiting the rise of others.. but still, I do feel that it takes 'class' to win Wimbledon - you need to be someone who can win multiple majors.
In fact, there have been very few first time winners, in the sense of someone who had never won a major before - Kvitova in 2011, Bartoli in 2013 and Sharapova in 2004..and except for Bartoli, the others went on to win other majors..
...

I decided to check how many 1 time winners Wimbledon has had in the open era, and you may be onto something: Conchita, Novotna and Bartoli. By that I mean players that won only one slam, and it was at Wimby. By comparison, the USO has 6: Sabatini, Stosur, Penneta, Sloane, Bianca and Emma, with the last three still playing.
So yes, to win Wimbledon you most likely need something else. But this year, the four former champions in the draw (unless Venus gets her WC) are all playing sub-par. I can see Kerber doing well, but Halep, Mugu and Petra have to be considered very long-shots.

Not surprising given how many players prefer hard court to grass. The difference is pretty small, though.


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[ashkor87]

My prediction as of now-

Swiatek 50%
Raducanu 15%
Andreescu 10%
Bencic 10%
Gauff 10%
Sloane 5%


Ib happier times, I would have said
Swiatek 40%
Leylah 30%
Raducanu 10%
Alexandrova 10%
Etc .

[ponchi101]

There is no way I can put Emma at anywhere above 2%. She is a known quantity and has done nothing of relevance to earn that much.
Andreescu: about the same rationale.
Gauff. I want to see her play one match, but, ok, I can go for 10%
So you are taking Swiatek and NOT one single other top 10 player. Ok, I can go for that

[ashkor87]

The only real question mark about Raducanu is her fitness..I think her injury woes are all one-offs, so I am optimistic...if she is fit, she can win this event...though the court isn't as fast as the USO..even last year, she had played well..

[Deuce]

The only real question mark about Raducanu is her fitness..I think her injury woes are all one-offs, so I am optimistic...if she is fit, she can win this event...though the court isn't as fast as the USO..even last year, she had played well..

She played well at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open last year.
Those are the only two WTA level tournaments where she's done well... and in one of them, she was so overwhelmed emotionally/psychologically that she had to quit a match.
Other than those two tournaments, she has shown nothing significant (except a very strong tendency to retire/withdraw).

Those two tournaments, then, are an extremely small sample size to assess a player on. Extremely small.
As such, in my view, everything about Raducanu is a question mark, not just her fitness.
Her level of play is a huge question mark... How she handles having a 'target on her back' after the U.S. Open is a huge question mark... Her commitment to the game is a huge question mark...

[Suliso]

Raducanu if she even plays wins max 2 matches. Winning the title is out of question.

[ashkor87]

Sloane is somebody I always thought of as potentially good on grass..light on her feet, good return..her serve could do with more bite but she is capable of winning Wimbledon..and she has proven her 'class' by winning the USO..! Her chances are better than Madison's, though many people including Davenport think of Madison Keys as a future Wimbledon champion..I actually think she is more suited to a medium-paced hard court..

[ashkor87]

Raducanu if she even plays wins max 2 matches. Winning the title is out of question.

I think more of her than you do but we shall see

[Suliso]

I think you're taking your thesis "Wimbledon is won by established champions or future superstars" a bit too far, but indeed we'll see soon enough. This year is a bit short of such candidates...

[ashkor87]

Let us watch and see how Qinwen Zheng adapts to grass..she has the game..can she adapt is the only question..she is entered in Berlin, I believe...

[meganfernandez]

My prediction as of now-

Swiatek 50%
Raducanu 15%
Andreescu 10%
Bencic 10%
Gauff 10%
Sloane 5%


Ib happier times, I would have said
Swiatek 40%
Leylah 30%
Raducanu 10%
Alexandrova 10%
Etc .

No Jabeur, a quarterfinal It’s last year? I’m high on her chances. She has a tough one today vs Muchova.

It’s all a crapshoot at this point.