Tennis Random, Random (On Court)

[ashkor87]

While it is a truism that anyone can win anything, the fact is 'anyone' doesn't...except for Krejcikova and Raducanu, perhaps..on the men's side, basically never..

[Suliso]

While it is a truism that anyone can win anything, the fact is 'anyone' doesn't...except for Krejcikova and Raducanu, perhaps..on the men's side, basically never..

Let me introduce you to Thomas Johansson and Albert Costa

[Suliso]

Flavia is also calling.

[Deuce]

You guys are super conservative as far as potential of players is concerned. Everyone, but 2-3 players is max top 20 potential or on the way down. If so who do you think will win a lion's share of Slams in the next 5-7 years? Do you expect Swiatek and Osaka to win ca 10 Slams each then? Or maybe 15 almost random one Slam wonders?

I simply think that the WTA is entering an era where parity will reign. It's not going to be another 15 years of Serena-like - or even Navratilova/Evert-like - domination.
Therefore, the winners of Majors will be more evenly spread out with the current generation.

[ashkor87]

While it is a truism that anyone can win anything, the fact is 'anyone' doesn't...except for Krejcikova and Raducanu, perhaps..on the men's side, basically never..

Let me introduce you to Thomas Johansson and Albert Costa
[/quot
Did 'anyone' win the French Open this year?! Despite all the talk about being so open..? The fact is, it is never really so open

[Suliso]

What do you mean with "anyone"? Thomas Johansson and Flavia Penetta were as close to anyone as you could possibly be. Of course still top 20 before, but no one was taking them seriously as potential Slam winners.

Of course not every year surprises happen. Clearly not this year so far.

[ashkor87]

What do you mean with "anyone"? Thomas Johansson and Flavia Penetta were as close to anyone as you could possibly be. Of course still top 20 before, but no one was taking them seriously as potential Slam winners.

Of course not every year surprises happen. Clearly not this year so far.

Let us keep some perspective here..a couple of surprises in 20 years is ok..it is just that some people here are talking as if it is totally random..it isn't.

[meganfernandez]

What do you mean with "anyone"? Thomas Johansson and Flavia Penetta were as close to anyone as you could possibly be. Of course still top 20 before, but no one was taking them seriously as potential Slam winners.

Of course not every year surprises happen. Clearly not this year so far.

Let us keep some perspective here..a couple of surprises in 20 years is ok..it is just that some people here are talking as if it is totally random..it isn't.

Most examples have the benefit of hindsight, too. When Myskina, Sharapova, and Kuznetsova won Slams in 2004, it seemed random at the time, but turns out, two of them were legit champions. I'm guessing Myskina was, too, but maybe she was derailed with injuries? We just don't know about a lot of the current players. We only have impressions and guesses. Which is fun for some people its own kind of sport. But it's hard to use history as a gauge for that reason.

I wouldn't say anyone can win, meaning has a decent realistic shot. But I think many do, if things break right, both on and off the court. On the WTA side, whoever the current Flavias are (very solid and mature Top 20 players), I do think they have a realistic shot of winning a Slam for the time being.

[meganfernandez]

You guys are super conservative as far as potential of players is concerned. Everyone, but 2-3 players is max top 20 potential or on the way down. If so who do you think will win a lion's share of Slams in the next 5-7 years? Do you expect Swiatek and Osaka to win ca 10 Slams each then? Or maybe 15 almost random one Slam wonders?

I simply think that the WTA is entering an era where parity will reign. It's not going to be another 15 years of Serena-like - or even Navratilova/Evert-like - domination.
Therefore, the winners of Majors will be more evenly spread out with the current generation.

It could have been. We could have been in an Osaka-Iga era, but alas. I think Leylah and Coco have the appetite and heart for it. Those two and Iga are still very young. Just not sure if Leylah is physically strong enough to have Top 2 or 3 results week in and week out. Do you think she is? Can she be overpowered?

We also don't know when the next Iga or Fernandez will show up. Someone could bust out like Iga next year.

[ashkor87]

Ok here is a hold prediction: of the next 12 majors, Osaka and Swiatek will win at least 5 between them. I don't see the others challenging them if they are healthy.
Of course we won't know positively till 2025 but if it is not happening, we will know by the end of 2023. I will keep track, assuming I am still around by then!

[meganfernandez]

Ok here is a hold prediction: of the next 12 majors, Osaka and Swiatek will win at least 5 between them. I don't see the others challenging them if they are healthy.
Of course we won't know positively till 2025 but if it is not happening, we will know by the end of 2023. I will keep track, assuming I am still around by then!

Healthy and engaged... Osaka has been mostly healthy, as far as we know, but (apparently) has not dedicated herself full-time, enough to play at her top level week in and week out. Not giving the full effort - said with zero judgment, just a neutral observation. Leylah beat Osaka last year at the Open, for instance. That shouldn't happen if Osaka is in full flight.

Anyway! We'll see. If they win 5 Slams together, I think 4 of them are Iga's. Hope I'm wrong! Trajectories can always change and maybe Osaka takes her rightful place at the top of the rankings again.

[patrick]

Flavia is also calling.

Along with Bartoli

[patrick]

Ok here is a hold prediction: of the next 12 majors, Osaka and Swiatek will win at least 5 between them. I don't see the others challenging them if they are healthy.
Of course we won't know positively till 2025 but if it is not happening, we will know by the end of 2023. I will keep track, assuming I am still around by then!

Healthy and engaged... Osaka has been mostly healthy, as far as we know, but (apparently) has not dedicated herself full-time, enough to play at her top level week in and week out. Not giving the full effort - said with zero judgment, just a neutral observation. Leylah beat Osaka last year at the Open, for instance. That shouldn't happen if Osaka is in full flight.

Anyway! We'll see. If they win 5 Slams together, I think 4 of them are Iga's. Hope I'm wrong! Trajectories can always change and maybe Osaka takes her rightful place at the top of the rankings again.

Her story reminds me of what the Williams Sisters did when they reach the top. The media questioned their commitment to tennis as they were doing off court activities.

[meganfernandez]

Flavia is also calling.

Along with Bartoli

Bartoli reached another Slam final... I tend to lump finalists and even consistent 2nd-weekers together, in terms of players who shouldn't be considered surprise winner.

[ponchi101]

On the men's side, we forgot to mention Gaudio, Gomez, Gimeno and Krajicek, players that made one final, won it, and never came close to a second.
Swiatek is doing great, there is not doubt. But too early for GREAT. That bar has been moved, in both the WTA and ATP, to players with more than 5 slams. I say Osaka gets there (she will collect another USO or Aussie) but Swiatek is only at two, and both at RG. We have to give her time.
I am in the multiple ONE SLAM winners. I know Iga right now is 4000 points ahead from #2, but after that, they all have the same potential. So, if Iga stumbles anywhere, it is an open tournament. Everywhere.