An early look at the US Open

[ponchi101]

History does suggest that one-off champions happen more often at the USO than at Wimbledon..Penetta and Sloane, for instance..though I think Sloane can win again, she is a champion-class player

One Slam champions, at Wimby and USO:
Wimbledon:
Conchita, Novotna, Bartoli, Rybakina.
USO:
Sabatini, Stosur, Pennetta, Sloane, Andreescu, Raducanu

But we are talking about this year. And, I will still take OTHER in the USO poll.
Fun, irrelevant fact to take into consideration: last year in which there was a 2 Slam champion (in that same year): 2016.
This year, Barty cannot repeat, you are saying Swiatek is not a prohibitive favorite (and I agree), and I just can't see Rybakina pulling that double. So:
OTHER for the win

[Cuckoo4Coco]

History does suggest that one-off champions happen more often at the USO than at Wimbledon..Penetta and Sloane, for instance..though I think Sloane can win again, she is a champion-class player

One Slam champions, at Wimby and USO:
Wimbledon:
Conchita, Novotna, Bartoli, Rybakina.
USO:
Sabatini, Stosur, Pennetta, Sloane, Andreescu, Raducanu

But we are talking about this year. And, I will still take OTHER in the USO poll.
Fun, irrelevant fact to take into consideration: last year in which there was a 2 Slam champion (in that same year): 2016.
This year, Barty cannot repeat, you are saying Swiatek is not a prohibitive favorite (and I agree), and I just can't see Rybakina pulling that double. So:
OTHER for the win

If you are saying that Iga is not the favorite in the ladies draw then who do you think is the favorite?

That being asked who would you say would be the favorite on the men's side? Would it be Medvedev?

[ashkor87]

History does suggest that one-off champions happen more often at the USO than at Wimbledon..Penetta and Sloane, for instance..though I think Sloane can win again, she is a champion-class player

One Slam champions, at Wimby and USO:
Wimbledon:
Conchita, Novotna, Bartoli, Rybakina.
USO:
Sabatini, Stosur, Pennetta, Sloane, Andreescu, Raducanu

But we are talking about this year. And, I will still take OTHER in the USO poll.
Fun, irrelevant fact to take into consideration: last year in which there was a 2 Slam champion (in that same year): 2016.
This year, Barty cannot repeat, you are saying Swiatek is not a prohibitive favorite (and I agree), and I just can't see Rybakina pulling that double. So:
OTHER for the win

Too early to say Rybakina is a 1-slammer, almost certainly she will win a couple more..true of raducanu and andreescu also, of course

[Deuce]

Too early to say Rybakina is a 1-slammer, almost certainly she will win a couple more..true of raducanu and andreescu also, of course

^ Except that Raducanu and Andreescu will never win another Major.

[ashkor87]

Too early to say Rybakina is a 1-slammer, almost certainly she will win a couple more..true of raducanu and andreescu also, of course

^ Except that Raducanu and Andreescu will never win another Major.

We shall see...!

[ashkor87]

One reason I don't think the tournaments leading up to the USO are worth factoring in, is that the USO conditions, by which I mean mostly speed of the court, were significantly different last year from the other tournaments...was studying the Canadian open, for instance, on YouTube , side by side with the USO. ..the court speed is visibly, paplably different..maybe only 5-10% but at this level, that is enough. .. we already saw at Wimbledon that the tournaments leading up to Wimbledon did not predict Rybakina...

[Cuckoo4Coco]

Way too early to predict if Emma, Rybakina or Bianca will ever win another tournament. For one they are all very young and still even at where they are all in their games still improving and then you never know how anything will pan out in any Slam. Nobody thought Elena, Emma or Bianca were even going to win any Grand Slam tournaments and that happened. So why not again?

[ponchi101]

...

If you are saying that Iga is not the favorite in the ladies draw then who do you think is the favorite?

That being asked who would you say would be the favorite on the men's side? Would it be Medvedev?

I am not saying she is not the favorite; I am saying she is not the HANDS DOWN favorite. It will not be as clear as that RG run. I said above: she WILL be the favorite, but I say at only about 33%. All other players, and it will be a lot, will get reasonable odds.
Men's: Medvedev and Rafa at equal odds. Medvedev because he really likes the surface, Rafa because he wakes up to play a tennis match and a little part of his brain says "I'm Rafa".

When Emma won her USO we looked it up: NO player that has won a slam as a teenager (in the women's) has ended her career as a one slam wonder. And in the men's, only Chang has retired with no more slams.
Rybakina, at 23, is a bit of a late bloomer. But, so were Barty and Davenport. In the poll in another topic the majority felt she was in the 2-4 range. I say she is good for one more. But, with this parity, if she never even as much as sniffs another Slam final, one Wimbledon is one hell of a career.

[Cuckoo4Coco]

...

If you are saying that Iga is not the favorite in the ladies draw then who do you think is the favorite?

That being asked who would you say would be the favorite on the men's side? Would it be Medvedev?

I am not saying she is not the favorite; I am saying she is not the HANDS DOWN favorite. It will not be as clear as that RG run. I said above: she WILL be the favorite, but I say at only about 33%. All other players, and it will be a lot, will get reasonable odds.
Men's: Medvedev and Rafa at equal odds. Medvedev because he really likes the surface, Rafa because he wakes up to play a tennis match and a little part of his brain says "I'm Rafa".

When Emma won her USO we looked it up: NO player that has won a slam as a teenager (in the women's) has ended her career as a one slam wonder. And in the men's, only Chang has retired with no more slams.
Rybakina, at 23, is a bit of a late bloomer. But, so were Barty and Davenport. In the poll in another topic the majority felt she was in the 2-4 range. I say she is good for one more. But, with this parity, if she never even as much as sniffs another Slam final, one Wimbledon is one hell of a career.

It seems to me that every women's major there are no guarantees. There always seems to be a ton of upsets leading to the SF's and Finals. That is why players like Leylah and Coco and others have a great chance of winning the US Open in my opinion. Sure Iga could go through the tournament and not drop a set, but she could also go out in an early round before the 2nd week.

The Men's side always seems to be a bit more predictable, especially when the big 3 are in the tournament. This tournament however will only have 1 of them in Rafa. Medvedev at least at the US Open I think if playing the way he is capable of playing can beat anyone. I do think this year the US Open Men's side is a bit more open and that is why I think guys like Sinner and Alcaraz have great chances.

As for winning multiple slams for these young ladies. I totally agree with you that they have so much more tennis ahead of them and so much can happen in those tournaments. Like you also said though if they don't win another one winning a Grand Slam is such a huge achievement. Something to be so proud of.

As a little girl growing up playing this game, I know I have always dreamed about winning a Grand Slam event. I think every player who picks up a racquet when they are little dream of that.

[ponchi101]

I say that as fans, sometimes we are too harsh. And these last three decades have been terrible for that, because we had Roger, Rafa, Novak, Pete, Serena, Steffi, Seles and Venus. All of the sudden, if you did not win 15 slams, you were not great.
I never liked Arantxa, because of her style of play. But that woman over-achieved to the max. With that game, almost any other player would have been stuck at challenger level. She won four slams.
But this last crop of players made it hard to keep perspective and appreciate, for example, Flavia Penetta. Sure, only one slam. But she won it.
Heck, I can't even win at Yahtzee. That should put me in my place.

[Cuckoo4Coco]

I say that as fans, sometimes we are too harsh. And these last three decades have been terrible for that, because we had Roger, Rafa, Novak, Pete, Serena, Steffi, Seles and Venus. All of the sudden, if you did not win 15 slams, you were not great.
I never liked Arantxa, because of her style of play. But that woman over-achieved to the max. With that game, almost any other player would have been stuck at challenger level. She won four slams.
But this last crop of players made it hard to keep perspective and appreciate, for example, Flavia Penetta. Sure, only one slam. But she won it.
Heck, I can't even win at Yahtzee. That should put me in my place.

Heck if I ever make it to the pro tour and win any tournament I will go crazy. Right now my goal as I think I mentioned is to win the Private Catholic Schools County and possibly State Championships. I would be extremely happy doing that. After that it is off to college where my goal is to win the NCAA Women's Championships by my Senior year. If I do that I think I would have achieved so much from the game of tennis and the game would even at that young age right out of college given me more than I can even imagine.

[jazzyg]

Way too early to predict if Emma, Rybakina or Bianca will ever win another tournament. For one they are all very young and still even at where they are all in their games still improving and then you never know how anything will pan out in any Slam. Nobody thought Elena, Emma or Bianca were even going to win any Grand Slam tournaments and that happened. So why not again?

I was very vocal about Andreescu winning the U.S. Open before it started the year she won, and I was not alone. I know Brad Gilbert picked her, too, and the way she had barely lost matches when she competed all year, she was a popular selection.

Clearly no one could have foreseen Raducanu winning.

Rybakina, who always had the game to win a slam, had shown a proclivity for losing close matches ever since the pandemic started, so there was no reason to think she would turn it around at Wimbledon.

[ponchi101]

...

I was very vocal about Andreescu winning the U.S. Open before it started the year she won, and I was not alone. I know Brad Gilbert picked her, too, and the way she had barely lost matches when she competed all year, she was a popular selection.

Clearly no one could have foreseen Raducanu winning.

Rybakina, who always had the game to win a slam, had shown a proclivity for losing close matches ever since the pandemic started, so there was no reason to think she would turn it around at Wimbledon.

Not taking anything from your forecast, but Bianca had a great summer, even prior to the USO. She had taken IW in spring, and The Rogers Cup a bit earlier (even though Serena retired in that final). There was that stat that she had never lost a match in N. America that had been completed (she retired a couple of time). So, you are right; at least, a few people had her taking the USO.
I say she can be in the mix this year, and as long as she does not get injured, she can win it. But, some IFS of consideration.
Rybakina. We have to wait a few more tournaments, but it has happened before: a player win big, and turns the corner. Barty was a late bloomer, took that time off, and when she won the Aussie this year, she was clearly ahead of everybody. And Rybakina has a lot of room for improvement.

[Deuce]

Way too early to predict if Emma, Rybakina or Bianca will ever win another tournament. For one they are all very young and still even at where they are all in their games still improving and then you never know how anything will pan out in any Slam. Nobody thought Elena, Emma or Bianca were even going to win any Grand Slam tournaments and that happened. So why not again?

Because, with Emma and Bianca, other players have figured out their games. When they won the U.S. Open, they were new to the tour, and other players didn't know how to play them. Now they know - and, as a result, Emma and Bianca are not doing nearly as well as they did in the years they won the U.S. Open.

There are also other factors... The both the psychological physical fitness is questionable with both Emma and Bianca.
Andreescu's injury problems have a very long history, going back to Juniors. As well, she says that she 'almost quit tennis completely' during the time in the past year that she didn't play. Her good stretch was a period of only 6 months, 3 years ago. She has not done anything significant since then. A good 6 months does not make a great career - just as a bad 6 months does not make a terrible career. It depends what you do with the rest of your time on tour.
And, on a personal note, I find her arrogant - her attitude has too often been one of a person who thinks she is the greatest thing since sliced bread. That will come back to bite you in the behind in 95% of players of any sport.

As far as Emma is concerned, she has also shown that she is more fragile than average both physically and psychologically. Her having to pull out of Wimbledon 2021 because she was simply emotionally overwhelmed... and her 'little injuries' have had her retire from matches or withdraw in between matches far too often recently.

And so, all of that combined has led me to believe that neither one will ever win another Major - and maybe never win another significant tournament.

[Cuckoo4Coco]

Like Ponchi said a few people predicted Bianca to win the USO that year, but by far she was not the overwhelming favorite to win the tournament that year.

Oh and I think Bianca has a shot at winning the USO this year. Why not? There could be a player that we are not even talking about and all of the sudden in the 2nd week we are all talking about that player and their chances of making it to the Finals. No one was talking about Emma and Leylah(Well maybe Deuce about Leylah) at the USO last year. So it can happen and actually I love when that sort of thing happens. Last year when Emma and Leylah played in the Final, I loved that. I hope something like that happens again this year that includes Coco Gauff this time. I think in the women's game anything can pretty much happen.