ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 22, 2022 10:09 pm
A scorching last three months of last year, and everybody behind her having done nothing that comes close to that since.
Heck, I don't get how Sakkari is #3.
US Open Slam semi, WTA semi, Indian Wells final, Qatar semi (it's a 1000), plus two more finals, two more semis, and two quarterfinals. She's just gone a little cold since IW, making only semi since then. Her losses haven't been terrible: BHM, Garcia, Jabeur, Muchova in two tiebreaks, Maria at Wimbledon (looks better once she made the semi). She beat Gauff in Rome and Kasatkina 0 and 3 on grass. I have totally ignored her this year, though.
And, again - she had COVID-19 in April, and the effects of that have been lingering.
That's not to say that she would have continued her dominance had she not contracted COVID - very likely not... but her results would likely have been better from April until now had she not contracted COVID.
R.I.P. Amal...
“The opposite of courage is not cowardice - it’s conformity. Even a dead fish can go with the flow.”- Jim Hightower
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 22, 2022 10:09 pm
A scorching last three months of last year, and everybody behind her having done nothing that comes close to that since.
Heck, I don't get how Sakkari is #3.
US Open Slam semi, WTA semi, Indian Wells final, Qatar semi (it's a 1000), plus two more finals, two more semis, and two quarterfinals. She's just gone a little cold since IW, making only semi since then. Her losses haven't been terrible: BHM, Garcia, Jabeur, Muchova in two tiebreaks, Maria at Wimbledon (looks better once she made the semi). She beat Gauff in Rome and Kasatkina 0 and 3 on grass. I have totally ignored her this year, though.
And, again - she had COVID-19 in April, and the effects of that have been lingering.
That's not to say that she would have continued her dominance had she not contracted COVID - very likely not... but her results would likely have been better from April until now had she not contracted COVID.
^ Just to clarify, I'm referring to Kontaveit above who had COVID, not Sakkari.
R.I.P. Amal...
“The opposite of courage is not cowardice - it’s conformity. Even a dead fish can go with the flow.”- Jim Hightower
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 22, 2022 3:02 pm
Anyone (other than one Serena) who wins Cinci is almost disqualified as a USO champion, in my book. Her wins on 3 different surfaces in 3 months is impressive, though...but losing to Bouzkova is not the mark of a champion...so I would not pick her, as of now - unless the court turns out to be slow..which I will know only after I see the actual matches .the media will not tell us, since they are more interested in other things..
Generally, there isn't much overlap in the WTA quarterfinalists from Cincy and US Open. It's a weird trend. The different atmospheres and maybe court speed could be contributing factors. In 2020, Vika and Osaka were winner and RU in both Cincy and the US Open and that was the year Cincy was held in NYC. Last year, Barty won Cincy and really should have gone farther in NY, losing a third-set TB to Rogers (with Raducanu next). But yeah, Cincy isn't very predictive of NYC on the women's side lately. Doesn't mean it won't be this year.
I wonder how much players get the itch to get to NYC when they're in Cincy. They're young, they have friends to see, other people are heading there early... If they aren't feeling their games in Cincy, I wonder if they peace out and head east.
But then, some people aren't in a rush to get there. It looks like Muguruza stayed the whole week. Rafa did. They had houses. Maybe they were just fine with the peace and quiet.
Yes, I had forgotten about 2020- the double almost happened..but
not quite. You are right.
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:38 am
Ok, thanks for the reminder. Sakkari, at the moment, seems a worthy #3.
For some reason, the spring seems like ages ago. I don't consider her #3 - she's #7 in the race. But then again, I think there's a No. 1, maybe a No. 2, and then 10 people are tied for #3 and 10 people tied for #4.
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 22, 2022 10:09 pm
A scorching last three months of last year, and everybody behind her having done nothing that comes close to that since.
Heck, I don't get how Sakkari is #3.
US Open Slam semi, WTA semi, Indian Wells final, Qatar semi (it's a 1000), plus two more finals, two more semis, and two quarterfinals. She's just gone a little cold since IW, making only semi since then. Her losses haven't been terrible: BHM, Garcia, Jabeur, Muchova in two tiebreaks, Maria at Wimbledon (looks better once she made the semi). She beat Gauff in Rome and Kasatkina 0 and 3 on grass. I have totally ignored her this year, though.
And, again - she had COVID-19 in April, and the effects of that have been lingering.
That's not to say that she would have continued her dominance had she not contracted COVID - very likely not... but her results would likely have been better from April until now had she not contracted COVID.
I don't think I knew Sakkari had COVID. Yeah, definitely a factor. Thanks for the reminder. Now I'm going to back to underestimating her.
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:58 pm
Q Zheng has a better shot than these Sakkaris and Garcias. .she is young, getting better, reduced Halep to tears at RG..
I'd say "as good a chance." In the case of Garcia, people are letting her past affect their expectations of her more than current form. I guess that's somewhat fair, but players change and improve. She's resurgent and maybe she's better now than she was in 2017. Or just as good and now more experienced.
Zheng is getting better and better, and she has been close to a breakthrough event recently, just losing a close match to a top player. I'd give her an edge over Sakkari (although Sakkari beat her 1 and 4 at the Aussie) but not as good of a chance as Garcia, who has more experience and better results lately.
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 22, 2022 10:09 pm
A scorching last three months of last year, and everybody behind her having done nothing that comes close to that since.
Heck, I don't get how Sakkari is #3.
I think basically all her points came from the back half of the season, so if she continues to play in her current form, things should balance out quickly.
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:58 pm
Q Zheng has a better shot than these Sakkaris and Garcias. .she is young, getting better, reduced Halep to tears at RG..
I'd say "as good a chance." In the case of Garcia, people are letting her past affect their expectations of her more than current form. I guess that's somewhat fair, but players change and improve. She's resurgent and maybe she's better now than she was in 2017. Or just as good and now more experienced.
Zheng is getting better and better, and she has been close to a breakthrough event recently, just losing a close match to a top player. I'd give her an edge over Sakkari (although Sakkari beat her 1 and 4 at the Aussie) but not as good of a chance as Garcia, who has more experience and better results lately.
Garcia and Pera are my "peaked too early" picks for the USO
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:58 pm
Q Zheng has a better shot than these Sakkaris and Garcias. .she is young, getting better, reduced Halep to tears at RG..
I'd say "as good a chance." In the case of Garcia, people are letting her past affect their expectations of her more than current form. I guess that's somewhat fair, but players change and improve. She's resurgent and maybe she's better now than she was in 2017. Or just as good and now more experienced.
Zheng is getting better and better, and she has been close to a breakthrough event recently, just losing a close match to a top player. I'd give her an edge over Sakkari (although Sakkari beat her 1 and 4 at the Aussie) but not as good of a chance as Garcia, who has more experience and better results lately.
Garcia and Pera are my "peaked too early" picks for the USO
Pera has... peaked? You would have considered her a contender if she had won LESS this summer? She isn't on any of my gigantic lists. Maybe I'm a fool, but I don't consider her a Slam threat.
Garcia is just getting started. Some players can actually sustain a high level.
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 22, 2022 10:09 pm
A scorching last three months of last year, and everybody behind her having done nothing that comes close to that since.
Heck, I don't get how Sakkari is #3.
I think basically all her points came from the back half of the season, so if she continues to play in her current form, things should balance out quickly.
A little more than half of Sakkari's points are from 2022. She got 1,000 in Feb and early March, from Qatar and IW. If she bombs out of the USO first round, she will likely fall out of the Top 20 in the race. If she wins a few rounds and the tournament is another erratic one, she should stay in the Top 10 or 15.
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 22, 2022 10:09 pm
A scorching last three months of last year, and everybody behind her having done nothing that comes close to that since.
Heck, I don't get how Sakkari is #3.
I think basically all her points came from the back half of the season, so if she continues to play in her current form, things should balance out quickly.
I don't even expect Mugu or Anett reaching the tour finals, which will drop them even more.
That is, unless they do really well at the USO and pile on 700 points or something like that. Otherwise, they both drop to the 20's, which is the level of tennis they are playing.
Sakkari and Sabalenka are defending SF points. They are also on the clock.
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 22, 2022 10:09 pm
A scorching last three months of last year, and everybody behind her having done nothing that comes close to that since.
Heck, I don't get how Sakkari is #3.
I think basically all her points came from the back half of the season, so if she continues to play in her current form, things should balance out quickly.
I don't even expect Mugu or Anett reaching the tour finals, which will drop them even more.
That is, unless they do really well at the USO and pile on 700 points or something like that. Otherwise, they both drop to the 20's, which is the level of tennis they are playing.
Sakkari and Sabalenka are defending SF points. They are also on the clock.
Thing is, Swiatek has gobbled up so many points - 7,000 - that there aren't much left for others. I think the last few spots for the Finals will be hotly contested this fall. I expect Swiatek, Jabeur, Gauff, and Pegula to make it for sure. The rest I think are going to be up for grabs, although I haven't done the math. Agree about Mugu and Kontaveit, although I still have hope for Kontaveit if she feels better once fall rolls around.
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