'22 WTA ATP GS USOpen 8/29 - 9/11

[AcesAnnie]

That's a strange take. Of course I knew about her before the US Open. Doubtful anyone who frequents this forum didn't know about her by that time.

I guess what I meant by that is were you really following her as a serious contender at any major event?

That's not what you said though. She was unknown to the world at large when she won the US Open, but she was known by the grand majority of devoted tennis fans since at Wimbledon at the latest. We literally got a blow by blow of her activity from that point on. She got a wild card to San Jose and was promoted as if she was a top 10 player returning from injury and had a very good run at one of the lead up 125k tournaments. Was I putting money down on her to win the US Open? No, but she was on most tennis fan's radars at that time as an up and coming talent.

You've been talking about Linda Noskova and seem high on her. Emma's run is closer to her going on a run thru qualifying and winning the US Open this year. Or Linda Fruhvirtova doing it. But instead of junior success putting her on our radar, it's some recent ITF success followed by a good run at the prior GS that did it.

Of course, I would have expected that a devoted fan of tennis would know who Emma Raducanu was leading up to that point. That I thought was a given, but I didn't word it right. I just know, last year when she was making her run at the title and even to some extent what Leylah Fernandez was doing as well was extremely shocking.

As for Noskova, I think she has a lot of talent for a 17 year old kid. Do I really know much about her game, no I don't. Could she upset a player or two at the USO? Sure she could. She could also lose in the 1st round.

[ashkor87]

Samsonova is doing a Rybakina...quietly impressing..we should pay some attention to her...

[ashkor87]

Anyone try the usopen app? Worst ever..even going back and forth is difficult...hope they improve it in the next couple days.

[meganfernandez]

Samsonova is doing a Rybakina...quietly impressing..we should pay some attention to her...

She has my attention. not quite at Rybakina levels (even before Wimbledon, since Rybakina had a great start to 2020). But I respect the danger that Samsonova poses.

[Deuce]

Of course no one thought a qualifier could win the U.S. Open when it started, but when she clobbered Shelby Rogers (after Rogers beat Barty) and no top player looked sharp, I certainly thought she had a chance at that point. A qualifier winning a slam probably will not happen again for 50 years, but Raducanu was one of the most qualified qualifiers to make a run I can remember.

I believe that you are also the person who predicted that Karatsev would go on to surpass Felix in the rankings when Karatsev had his good couple of months...

Raducanu was "one of the most qualified qualifiers" based on what, exactly?
By the time the U.S. Open of 2021 began, I believe Raducanu had played only one WTA event, plus Wimbledon. She won a few rounds at Wimbledon and got a lot of attention only because she's British and Wimbledon is held in England. Had she won a few rounds at the Aussie Open, she would not have received half the attention she received at Wimbledon.

So to say she was "one of the most qualified qualifiers" is odd, given her complete lack of history at the WTA level prior to the U.S. Open. Players who have done well at an ITF event are a dime a dozen. There are many players who could be described as being more qualified qualifiers than Raducanu was last year in N.Y. - players who have far more experience and who have achieved much more, even if they're ranked #200.

Honestly, Raducanu's story has all of the earmarks of a 'flash in the pan' - very sudden, big, very short term success followed by pretty much nothing for the past year. I hope things improve for her - but for right now, and if her results don't improve significantly, she'll be the very definition of a 'flash in the pan'.

[AcesAnnie]

Of course no one thought a qualifier could win the U.S. Open when it started, but when she clobbered Shelby Rogers (after Rogers beat Barty) and no top player looked sharp, I certainly thought she had a chance at that point. A qualifier winning a slam probably will not happen again for 50 years, but Raducanu was one of the most qualified qualifiers to make a run I can remember.

I believe that you are also the person who predicted that Karatsev would go on to surpass Felix in the rankings when Karatsev had his good couple of months...

Raducanu was "one of the most qualified qualifiers" based on what, exactly?
By the time the U.S. Open of 2021 began, I believe Raducanu had played only one WTA event, plus Wimbledon. She won a few rounds at Wimbledon and got a lot of attention only because she's British and Wimbledon is held in England. Had she won a few rounds at the Aussie Open, she would not have received half the attention she received at Wimbledon.

So to say she was "one of the most qualified qualifiers" is odd, given her complete lack of history at the WTA level prior to the U.S. Open. Players who have done well at an ITF event are a dime a dozen. There are many players who could be described as being more qualified qualifiers than Raducanu was last year in N.Y. - players who have far more experience and who have achieved much more, even if they're ranked #200.

Honestly, Raducanu's story has all of the earmarks of a 'flash in the pan' - very sudden, big, very short term success followed by pretty much nothing for the past year. I hope things improve for her - but for right now, and if her results don't improve significantly, she'll be the very definition of a 'flash in the pan'.

I agree with you that she was not the most qualified of qualifiers. She was pretty much an unknown. As for her becoming a "flash in the pan", I don't know if I can put that tag on any 19 year old player. Not this early in her career even if she does go into a slump. There is plenty of time for her to work through things and get back on track.

[Deuce]

Of course no one thought a qualifier could win the U.S. Open when it started, but when she clobbered Shelby Rogers (after Rogers beat Barty) and no top player looked sharp, I certainly thought she had a chance at that point. A qualifier winning a slam probably will not happen again for 50 years, but Raducanu was one of the most qualified qualifiers to make a run I can remember.

I believe that you are also the person who predicted that Karatsev would go on to surpass Felix in the rankings when Karatsev had his good couple of months...

Raducanu was "one of the most qualified qualifiers" based on what, exactly?
By the time the U.S. Open of 2021 began, I believe Raducanu had played only one WTA event, plus Wimbledon. She won a few rounds at Wimbledon and got a lot of attention only because she's British and Wimbledon is held in England. Had she won a few rounds at the Aussie Open, she would not have received half the attention she received at Wimbledon.

So to say she was "one of the most qualified qualifiers" is odd, given her complete lack of history at the WTA level prior to the U.S. Open. Players who have done well at an ITF event are a dime a dozen. There are many players who could be described as being more qualified qualifiers than Raducanu was last year in N.Y. - players who have far more experience and who have achieved much more, even if they're ranked #200.

Honestly, Raducanu's story has all of the earmarks of a 'flash in the pan' - very sudden, big, very short term success followed by pretty much nothing for the past year. I hope things improve for her - but for right now, and if her results don't improve significantly, she'll be the very definition of a 'flash in the pan'.

I agree with you that she was not the most qualified of qualifiers. She was pretty much an unknown. As for her becoming a "flash in the pan", I don't know if I can put that tag on any 19 year old player. Not this early in her career even if she does go into a slump. There is plenty of time for her to work through things and get back on track.

Yes... I wrote that at this point, she has all the earmarks of a 'flash in the pan' - and if her results don't improve significantly over what they've been for the past 11 months, she will be the very definition of a 'flash in the pan'.
Surely there is still time for her to show something more - there's still lots of time. But I'd say that the longer she goes without significantly better results, the less likely it will be that the significantly better results will come, as the confidence will decrease as the bad results continue.

[AcesAnnie]

I believe that you are also the person who predicted that Karatsev would go on to surpass Felix in the rankings when Karatsev had his good couple of months...

Raducanu was "one of the most qualified qualifiers" based on what, exactly?
By the time the U.S. Open of 2021 began, I believe Raducanu had played only one WTA event, plus Wimbledon. She won a few rounds at Wimbledon and got a lot of attention only because she's British and Wimbledon is held in England. Had she won a few rounds at the Aussie Open, she would not have received half the attention she received at Wimbledon.

So to say she was "one of the most qualified qualifiers" is odd, given her complete lack of history at the WTA level prior to the U.S. Open. Players who have done well at an ITF event are a dime a dozen. There are many players who could be described as being more qualified qualifiers than Raducanu was last year in N.Y. - players who have far more experience and who have achieved much more, even if they're ranked #200.

Honestly, Raducanu's story has all of the earmarks of a 'flash in the pan' - very sudden, big, very short term success followed by pretty much nothing for the past year. I hope things improve for her - but for right now, and if her results don't improve significantly, she'll be the very definition of a 'flash in the pan'.

I agree with you that she was not the most qualified of qualifiers. She was pretty much an unknown. As for her becoming a "flash in the pan", I don't know if I can put that tag on any 19 year old player. Not this early in her career even if she does go into a slump. There is plenty of time for her to work through things and get back on track.

Yes... I wrote that at this point, she has all the earmarks of a 'flash in the pan' - and if her results don't improve significantly over what they've been for the past 11 months, she will be the very definition of a 'flash in the pan'.
Surely there is still time for her to show something more - there's still lots of time. But I'd say that the longer she goes without significantly better results, the less likely it will be that the significantly better results will come, as the confidence will decrease as the bad results continue.

So do you think Sophia Kenin is going to be a "flash in the pan". Her results of late other than a string of a few good matches in her latest tournament have been horrible? She is still very young. If she continues to play poorly, is she a "flash in the pan?"

[Suliso]

All three Czech teens qualified.

[Deuce]

I agree with you that she was not the most qualified of qualifiers. She was pretty much an unknown. As for her becoming a "flash in the pan", I don't know if I can put that tag on any 19 year old player. Not this early in her career even if she does go into a slump. There is plenty of time for her to work through things and get back on track.

Yes... I wrote that at this point, she has all the earmarks of a 'flash in the pan' - and if her results don't improve significantly over what they've been for the past 11 months, she will be the very definition of a 'flash in the pan'.
Surely there is still time for her to show something more - there's still lots of time. But I'd say that the longer she goes without significantly better results, the less likely it will be that the significantly better results will come, as the confidence will decrease as the bad results continue.

So do you think Sophia Kenin is going to be a "flash in the pan". Her results of late other than a string of a few good matches in her latest tournament have been horrible? She is still very young. If she continues to play poorly, is she a "flash in the pan?"

Kenin had much better results over a significantly longer period than Raducanu. She was much more established than Raducanu.
Therefore, even if she never again gets back into the top 50, I don't think anyone will consider Kenin to be a 'flash in the pan' - including myself.

[ashkor87]

Revised probability estimates (to be revised again after we see what the court is playing like)

Men:

Medvedev 30% (still the best player in the world)
Kyrgios 25%
Sinner 15%
Hurkacz 10% (am somehow not convinced he really has the class to win a major)
Nadal 10% (dont think he is really fit, plus there are other distractions now)
Field 10% (includes Tsitsipas, his topspin doesnt really work well on hard courts.. and Alcaraz, not quite ready yet)

Women:

Swiatek 20% (not playing like a champion these days but class will tell)
Osaka 15% (class is permanent, form is temporary)
Leylah 15% (especially if the court is quick)
Andreescu 10% (class, yes, but seems to have injury issues)
Rybakina 10% (is she ready to dominate? probably not. Is she good enough, yes)
Samsonova 10%
Raducanu 5% (will do well if the court is fast)
Garcia 5% (not convinced she has the class to win a major)
Halep 5% (never done well at the USO, may be physically too taxing for her)
Q Zheng ,5% is best of the rest...
Field 0% (the rest arent really good enough)

[jazzyg]

[
I believe that you are also the person who predicted that Karatsev would go on to surpass Felix in the rankings when Karatsev had his good couple of months...

I thought Raducanu played incredibly well at Wimbledon and had all the shots to go deep in slams. My opinion had nothing to do with her being British. I watched her play and was super impressed.

And you're wrong that I predicted Karatsev would surpass Felix based on a good couple of months. It was only a good couple of matches, which makes that opinion appear even more ridiculous than you make it out to be. I'd never seen anyone return serve like he did in those two matches, and his groundstrokes were laser sharp on both wings. It turns out his return of serve is below average, his groundstrokes are scattershot and he was just on a weird hot streak, which was utterly predictable considering his lack of results to that point over several years.

He has, however, won three times as many titles as Felix. That won't be the case for long, but it's true at the moment.

[ponchi101]

Revised probability estimates (to be revised again after we see what the court is playing like)

Men:

Medvedev 30% (still the best player in the world)
Kyrgios 25%
Sinner 15%
Hurkacz 10% (am somehow not convinced he really has the class to win a major)
Nadal 10% (dont think he is really fit, plus there are other distractions now)
Field 10% (includes Tsitsipas, his topspin doesnt really work well on hard courts.. and Alcaraz, not quite ready yet)

Women:

Swiatek 20% (not playing like a champion these days but class will tell)
Osaka 15% (class is permanent, form is temporary)
Leylah 15% (especially if the court is quick)
Andreescu 10% (class, yes, but seems to have injury issues)
Rybakina 10% (is she ready to dominate? probably not. Is she good enough, yes)
Samsonova 10%
Raducanu 5% (will do well if the court is fast)
Garcia 5% (not convinced she has the class to win a major)
Halep 5% (never done well at the USO, may be physically too taxing for her)
Q Zheng ,5% is best of the rest...
Field 0% (the rest arent really good enough)

Giving the field in the WTA 0% is not looking at the stats of late. You just had a FIELD player win Wimbledon, another two did it at the USO last yera and RG last year.
And sorry, class is not permanent. JC Ferrero had a very, very good 2003. Was #1 for a while. He went downhill from there for the rest of his career, not even being a factor on his beloved clay.
Class can also be transient.

[ashkor87]

Rybakina was not a ' field' player for me at W
I agree about Krejcikova and Raducanu but this year has been rather more 'normal' - Barty winning the AO was totally expected, so was Swiatek winning the French, and Rybakina should have been a third favorite at least if we had read the cards correctly ..I feel order is being restored, somewhat ..

[JazzNU]

Anyone try the usopen app? Worst ever..even going back and forth is difficult...hope they improve it in the next couple days.

Haven't used it a ton, but used it the last two days to check court assignments of qualifying matches and check scores. Just checked it again now, the fantasy and draw portions. Again, they worked fine. Could either be a regional issue or if you're on an iPhone, could be that app is having more troubles. If you're on Android and having problems, I'm going to hazard a guess that it might come down to the version of Android you're on and how it works with it. ( But I haven't run into any issues so far, certainly not having any trouble navigating back and forth. I'll post if that changes.

Biggest criticism I have for this year's app thus far is that portions of it have the feel of a mobile wrapper app and I hate that.

FWIW, the last update to the app for me was August 25th.