ATP M1000 WTA 1000 BNP Paribas Open 3/8 - 3/19 2023

[Deuce]

To the surprise of many, there was actually a winner in the Kenin - Stephens match.
Kenin - 6-4, 6-1.

Muchova over Putinseva in 3 sets...

And Rinky Hijikata had a good win over Mikael Ymer in the final round of qualifying.

[Deuce]

Thiem goes out at the hands of Mannarino in a 3rd set tiebreak.
The career paths of Thiem and Kenin are quite similar to this point...

Looking to tomorrow (Friday), potentially interesting WTA matches are...

Linda Fruhvirtova vs. Kalinina

Noskova vs. Anisimova

Kalinskaya vs. Pliskova

Mandlik vs. Kvitova (Mandlik, of course, has Czech roots with her mom... she beat Alison Riske yesterday... I like the way she plays, and see her as a top 30-ish player in a couple of years.)

Teichmann vs. Bencic (Teichmann probably knows Bencic's game better than anyone - they are both Swiss, and are good friends.)

Pegula vs. Giorgi (Giorgi is the WTA's answer to Fognini - a natural talent, and you never know what you're going to get from her - could be great, or terrible, or anything in between.)

[Deuce]

McNally - Navarro was 3 one-sided sets.
1-6, 6-1, 6-1 Navarro.
Caty was in complete control of the match in the 1st set - she made 4 unforced errors in that set. Then she made 35 unforced errors over the next 2 sets.
I watched the match, and can’t pinpoint anything that happened to turn the match around so radically.
Very disappointing for McNally, who had been playing well lately.

Navarro gets Leylah, who had a 1st round bye, in round 2.

[Suliso]

Can we say that "statistics" was right in predicting Kenin over Stephens?

[ashkor87]

Can we say that "statistics" was right in predicting Kenin over Stephens?

Atleast they were not wrong!!

[meganfernandez]

At the club I played in in Caracas, there was a guy that only served that way. All his serves were reversed. It was quite interesting and it drove a lot of people crazy. Of course, he did not have the speed, but the spin made it complicated for many.

What a nightmare. How is his spine not ruined?

[Scoob]

I expect Leylah to get by in her 2nd round match over Navarro, but whatever she did to turn around the match on McNally must have worked to force Caty into hitting more unforced errors. It could be an interesting match.

[ponchi101]

Sure. But, as I said when she won. NO player has ever won a slam before turning 20 that did not win at least another one, in the WTA. For the men, only Chang.
She has a long career ahead of her. I can wait.

I've seen you mention this before about Emma, but it seems like something you're pulling out only for her these days. Serious question. Are you pulling out that stat when talking about Bianca? Because I haven't seen you mention it with her in a long time.

And the "turning 20" seems arbitrary to me. Ostapenko was like 20 years and 4 days when she won the French Open. I mean, she was 19 when the tournament began that year. Makes me wonder if there's another just turned 20 year old that ruins this statline.

I have actually never mentioned it regarding Bianca, and you are correct there. She was also under 20 when she won her USO.
I am not a fan of either player, nor am I a detractor. If neither ever wins big again I will not be worried. It is just a number to reflect how young Emma still is.
And the 20 yo cut is of course arbitrary. For example, Tracy Austin did win two slams before 20. And then the injuries derailed her. Not only that, she did very little other than those two USO (which is kind of odd to say: most players would kill for having a career with two USO's).
And your Ostapenko example is a great one. And there, I do have doubts she will win another big title again because of her reckless way of playing: everything has to be creamed.

Again, only pointing out that Emma is still young, and has had a very short career. I will still give her some time.

[ponchi101]

Can we say that "statistics" was right in predicting Kenin over Stephens?

Atleast they were not wrong!!

You are starting to sound like a politician.
And I apologize profusely for such an insult!
C'mon, Ashkor. That was a great example of stats. Some algorithm gave Kenin a slightly higher winning probability, which turned out to be "correct". Look at the data. Both players are:
Former Slam champions on hard courts
Former RG finalists.
1-0 H2H (Stephens, prior to the match).
Career highs: 3 and 4 (Sloane/Sofia).
It was a very close match to call. And then, surprise, it was a definitive win by Sofia.

So, there was very little to call this match one way or another. It was indeed 52-48.

And, BTW. If stats in sports did not matter, there would not be a brilliant, shiny city built in a desert in Nevada, raking in the profits. You have to look at it long term.
Kenin's chances tomorrow? I have no idea.

[Scoob]

Statistics... there is an entire profession based around it. Many make a lot of money off of it. Statistics as a college course tormented the hell out of me until I took the class with a Professor who was this old Japanese guy who had this method of teaching it in a way that made it simple for me. The following semester I became one of his student teacher's assistants for the class after failing miserably at it twice before with other professors.

[ashkor87]

This was not much of a test of anything .judgment, data all agreed and the result was what they predicted. So no discrimination ..

[Scoob]

Here is where I go 0-2 for the day. For the Friday matches, I am going to attempt to select two upsets of the day. One from the Men's Draw and One from the Women's Draw and see how miserable it goes.

On the Men's side: Lehecka over Rublev
On the Women's side: Rogers over Sakkari

[New England Nitemare]

Here is where I go 0-2 for the day. For the Friday matches, I am going to attempt to select two upsets of the day. One from the Men's Draw and One from the Women's Draw and see how miserable it goes.

On the Men's side: Lehecka over Rublev
On the Women's side: Rogers over Sakkari

Scoob, you could be right on with those picks. Sakkari has been kinda shaky lately, and Lehecka has had one heck of a season so far. Should be interesting to see what happens!!!

[Scoob]

Here is where I go 0-2 for the day. For the Friday matches, I am going to attempt to select two upsets of the day. One from the Men's Draw and One from the Women's Draw and see how miserable it goes.

On the Men's side: Lehecka over Rublev
On the Women's side: Rogers over Sakkari

Scoob, you could be right on with those picks. Sakkari has been kinda shaky lately, and Lehecka has had one heck of a season so far. Should be interesting to see what happens!!!

It could happen, with the way my predictions usually go it probably won't but it will be interesting to watch. I hope at least one of these will be televised up here.

[martini4me]

Thiem goes out at the hands of Mannarino in a 3rd set tiebreak.
The career paths of Thiem and Kenin are quite similar to this point...

Well, the last 3 1/2 years have a lot of similarities.

But Thiem is over 5 years older, so I don't think you can say their CAREER arcs are that similar.