Horse Racing Random

[dryrunguy]

This happened yesterday. Forget Essential Quality and Greatest Honour. Based on what we've seen so far, Bob Baffert yet again seems to have the inside track to another Kentucky Derby win. Even if Life Is Good is still REALLY green.

[ponchi101]

Problem with your posts here: horses names are so strange that I sometimes don't know if you are talking about a horse or it is a comment.
If Life is Good Dances with Bourbon, which is an essential quality, you have to admit it is the Greatest Honor to have the Inside Track to win the Derby.
See what I mean?

[Fastbackss]

Peripheral story to horse racing on 60 minutes last night.

In short, track doctor found out about a drug used to treat OCD that helped limit symptoms from Covid on the same day he found out 200 people at the track had tested positive.

He made the decision to offer the drug experimentally.

The group that decided to take it saw significantly better results.

[JazzNU]

On the one hand, that sounds great to have a promising treatment drug for covid. One the other hand, using the population I think they are saying they used to test this is (expletive) concerning.

[dryrunguy]

If all goes well with her next work this weekend, danceswithbourbon, my 3-year-old filly, will make her debut at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday, March 20--dirt, 6 furlongs. I would have preferred turf, but Tampa Bay Downs did not write any turf sprints for 3-year-old fillies only in the latest condition book. They only had 1 turf sprint for 3-year-old fillies and older, and she's definitely not ready to compete against older horses, even if those are winless horses.

Fingers crossed!

[dryrunguy]

Bob Baffert has another one wound up for the Kentucky Derby. Introducing Concert Tour. He won the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn today. I'll have to check the speed figures, but I THINK I still like Life is Good better than this one.

EDIT: I just checked. The speed figure for Concert Tour's win today is provisional, but the preliminary Equibase speed figure is 105 at 1 1/16 miles. That could change by a point or two. Life is Good put up a 110 at the same distance. Essential Quality also put up a 105 at the same distance last weekend.

[dryrunguy]

Meanwhile, 4-year-old filly, Swiss Skydiver, winner of the 2020 Preakness over 2020 Horse of the Year, Authentic, rebounded after a disappointing Breeder's Cup Distaff performance (vet analysis after the Breeder's Cup race revealed she injured a hoof, which none of the talking heads ever mention) to win the Grade 1 Beholder Mile today at Santa Anita.

[dryrunguy]

I received an update on my three 2-year-olds with the Shooting Star Syndicate.

One of the fillies, Rock Along, and the colt, Cryptic Creed, have completed their first published works--very solid for first-time works at 3 furlongs. Since both are Kentucky-bred, they are slated to be shipped up to Keeneland in the next week or two with the rest of Saffie Joseph's Keeneland string for the Keeneland spring meet which runs April 2-23. If all goes well, both will make their debuts there--most likely closer to April 23 than April 2. I am very pleased to hear they will make their debuts at Keeneland. It has (arguably) the most strict and equitably enforced safety protocols in the United States.

The other filly, Unconscious (I really detest that name), will take a little more time. She is a little behind the other two, which is totally normal. She has some very minor physical stuff going on and will only be hand-walked between now and early April. She will also receive some acupuncture treatment. We hope she will resume regular training in early April. Since she is a Florida-bred, when she's ready, she will go to Saffie's barn at Gulfstream--probably for the rest of the year. If it turns out she doesn't like the track (Bold Article didn't last year), Tampa Bay Downs is always an option. Or she can venture outside of Florida.

::

As for Danceswithbourbon (separate syndicate), on Wednesday, she will be entered in a race for this coming Saturday. We'll know by Thursday if the race has enough entries. I don't think it will be a problem as many 3-year-olds are just getting started or are still looking for that first win. I wish it was a race with larger purse money (only $26K), but it's a race, she's ready, and she will likely need a race or two before she's truly ready to win. And since it's a maiden special race rather than a maiden claiming race, she will be protected from being claimed.

Thanks for sharing the journey with me.

[ponchi101]

Good to hear your are doing well.

[JazzNU]

I don't hate the name Unconscious @dry. Not my fave, but in a sports context (well basketball at least), it has meaning, so it still works to me. But maybe a bit too much to live up to.

[dryrunguy]

I don't hate the name Unconscious @dry. Not my fave, but in a sports context (well basketball at least), it has meaning, so it still works to me. But maybe a bit too much to live up to.

I guess I don't immediately think of anything positive when I hear the word. I think of someone who has been in an accident. Or even worse, what can happen to a young woman passed out at a frat party. I just don't like it, but I'll eventually get used to it. As if I actually have a choice.

[ponchi101]

Well, just don't knock yourself unconscious over it...
(Sorry )

[JazzNU]

I guess I don't immediately think of anything positive when I hear the word. I think of someone who has been in an accident. Or even worse, what can happen to a young woman passed out at a frat party. I just don't like it, but I'll eventually get used to it. As if I actually have a choice.

Oh I understand that, but was just offering a different way to think of it since I didn't think you followed much basketball so you possibly weren't familiar with the word in that context. In basketball, playing "unconscious" means you are in an unbelievable zone, like you can't miss. Like Steph Curry or Damian Lillard hitting three-point after three-point from anywhere they want. It's an excellent thing. So, just a different way for you to think about it. And I would suspect that this is the origin of the horse's name, since the other meanings are so negative.

[dryrunguy]

I guess I don't immediately think of anything positive when I hear the word. I think of someone who has been in an accident. Or even worse, what can happen to a young woman passed out at a frat party. I just don't like it, but I'll eventually get used to it. As if I actually have a choice.

Oh I understand that, but was just offering a different way to think of it since I didn't think you followed much basketball so you possibly weren't familiar with the word in that context. In basketball, playing "unconscious" means you are in an unbelievable zone, like you can't miss. Like Steph Curry or Damian Lillard hitting three-point after three-point from anywhere they want. It's an excellent thing. So, just a different way for you to think about it. And I would suspect that this is the origin of the horse's name, since the other meanings are so negative.

I don't follow basketball, so I was totally unaware of that connotation. But that helps me relate it to something I understand... Like Irad Ortiz winning 5 of his 6 races in one day at Gulfstream--which he did just last week. He was riding unconscious.

Okay. I feel better now.

[dryrunguy]

So, Danceswithbourbon's entry in the second race at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday is confirmed. She'll finally get her debut--6 furlongs on dirt. Jesus Castanon will be the jockey. No sign of rain between now and then, though the Tampa area currently is under a flood advisory due to 1-3 inches of rain tonight in a short period of time. That should dry out by Saturday.

To call it a bizarre field of six 3-year-old fillies would be an understatement:

1) Danceswithbourbon will be one of two first-time starters. The other first-time starter has a trainer, Michael Fennessey, I have never heard of before, and he's also the owner and breeder. So she's a home-bred. Having the same trainer, owner, and breeder is pretty rare and generally not successful. Fennessey hasn't had a winner in a LONG time.

2) The favorite will probably be a horse named Opulent Ways, a Liam's Map filly out of an Awesome Again mare, so she's well-bred. I don't know her trainer, either, and he hasn't had a winner yet in 2021. But Opulent Ways has raced twice, both races at Tampa at 6.5 furlongs, finished 4th and 6th, and put up a decent speed figure in her last race.

3) The second choice for bettors will probably be a filly named Moanas Power trained by Carlos Munoz. His win rate is 9%. She has raced four times and finished 5th in her last two races, 2nd in her second race, and 3rd in her debut. But her last race was awful. She got bumped at the start and put up an Equibase speed figure of 9. Yeah, 9. But you can probably draw a line through that outing.

4) The real headscratchers, in addition to the two first-time starts, are a pair of fillies trained by Victoria Oliver. Both are extremely well-bred. For Sure is a Nyquist filly out of an A. P. Indy mare. Very nice pedigree, and foals from Nyquist's first crop have shown their ability to win early in their careers. For Sure made her debut at Indiana Grand in August, finished last of 7 and 22 lengths behind the winner and hasn't raced since. She clearly wasn't ready yet and could be ready to go on Saturday. The other coming off a long layoff, Flippant, is sired by Tapit and out of an Empire Maker mare. Again, REALLY nice pedigree. She made her debut at Churchill in November, was never involved, and finished 10th of 12 and about 17 lengths behind the winner. That was an $85K race, though, with a good field. She could be a new horse come Saturday. And Victoria Oliver wins 13% of her races and will have her two fillies ridden by the two jockeys in the field with the highest win percentages (19% and 20%, respectively).

So, not much about this field makes any sense. Welcome to Maiden Special Weight races!

To keep expectations tempered, I urge you to keep in mind that Danceswithbourbon's trainer, Jordan Blair, has never had a win with a first-time starter. It's not a stat he goes for, though I'm sure he won't object if it happens Saturday. But he doesn't train them with the specific purpose to win first time out like some trainers do. That said, Jordan has the second highest win percentage among trainers represented in the field while Castanon has the third highest win rate among jockeys in the field.

The most important thing is that she gets through the race with a good, safe trip, and if we happen to get 2nd or 3rd, I think everyone affiliated with Danceswithbourbon would be more than thrilled.