'24 Wimbledon Day 9 Order of Play for & Discussion

[jazzyg]

Ashkor's prediction was in the Eastbourne tournament thread after she beat Boulter. He said something to the effect of there was no reason she couldn't go deep at Wimbledon, and I was one of multiple people who disagreed with him in the same thread as I recall. Then when she lost to Kasatkina in the semifinal, I thought I had been proven right.

Nope. Not even close to being right.

[JTContinental]

I'd say he was 95% right about Paolini--she would be out of the tournament if Keys hadn't injured her hamstring

I've been watching her, and I've been supremely underwhelmed with her play--she hasn't looked great in any of her matches, but her opponents have all been uninspired duds. The draw has been very kind to her.

Overall, the Wimbledon results have been very random on both sides of the draw. I expect Rybakina to rip through the remaining players.

[jazzyg]

I am not even sure Rybakina gets past Svitolina.

If she serves well in the clutch---her biggest strength--than yes. If not, she could be in trouble.

Rybakina has played in nine grass events since the pandemic and reached the final of exactly one, when she won Wimbledon two years ago. I'm not discounting her because of her serve, but if anyone's grass game is overrated, it is Rybakina. And when things aren't going her way, she stops competing.

[meganfernandez]

I'd say he was 95% right about Paolini--she would be out of the tournament if Keys hadn't injured her hamstring

I don't think the match was a foregone conclusion. Keys didn't serve out the 2nd set twice, and didn't serve out the match on her first try, at 5-2 in the third. She was no lock to hold serve at 5-4.

[JTContinental]

If Paolini is ranked this high next year, I'll eat my words. But I don't see her sustaining; I think it's just a hot streak--she's fast but has no real weapons.

[jazzyg]

Paolini hits her forehand as hard as almost anyone on tour. That's not just my opinion. It is born out by mph stats.

[meganfernandez]

If Paolini is ranked this high next year, I'll eat my words. But I don't see her sustaining; I think it's just a hot streak--she's fast but has no real weapons.

Very well could be a hot streak. Peaking for half a season or maybe more is a more typical career arc than sustaining Top 10 for several years. We'll see. I think her ability to come forward is a weapon o grass. She's light on her feet.

[martini4me]

I was out for the afternoon, so didn't see any of the match. I just watched the Wimbledon highlight video, and there were two eye-popping statistics shown there.
1) Paolini won 16 of 17 points when she came to net;
2) Navarro won 0 (as in zero) second serve points! Does this reflect weakness of Navarro's second serve, or Paolini's ability to attack it more?

[ashkor87]

I just asked Ashkor why he didn't give her even a 2% chance of winning. She was clearly in the 5% he gave the field.
And I can't find the post where he predicted this excellent run.
I agree with you. She has a great chance of winning it. She escaped Keys, and now I just don't see Vekic beating her.

it is in the Wimbledon GS board - post no.17

[ashkor87]

it is in the ATP WTA Wimbledon GS board - post #17 I think

[ashkor87]

I still think Rybakina will win the title, though, Paolini is good but not a Tier 1 player - yet.

[jazzyg]

Rybakina looked awfully good today. Almost perfect.

Let's see what happens if someone challenges her. I see Krejcikova is 2-0 against her. Although it is hard to imagine that head to head translating to grass, you never know. If they play in the final, Paolini would make her hit more than one or two shots per point and also make her move a lot more.

[nelslus]

Rybakina looked awfully good today. Almost perfect.

Let's see what happens if someone challenges her. I see Krejcikova is 2-0 against her. Although it is hard to imagine that head to head translating to grass, you never know. If they play in the final, Paolini would make her hit more than one or two shots per point and also make her move a lot more.

AND Rybakina could destroy Paolini's serves- especially second serves- in a way that other players have not been. Paolini is vulnerable to getting hit off the court. AND of course, we could have a Vekic/Krejčíková final.

But, I mean, who the heck knows. Frankly, Rybakina SHOULD win this Wimbledon. BUT- she obviously can underperform at any point in time anywhere. AND, except for Roger, and V at Wimbledon, and, so far, Carlos....many of my favorites just LOVE to screw up.