Talk About Tennis 2.0

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 13, 2025 4:25 pm On a slow court like this one, Samsonova has a 50% chance against Sabalenka..Bencic probably has a 55% shot against Keys...saba last beat Samsonova at Cincy but that court was too fast for Samsonova anyway. Both matches are close...

Ended up with Bencic having a 14% chance of taking 1 game. She'll be top 10 soon though.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 13, 2025 5:50 pm

mick1303 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 13, 2025 3:22 pm

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 13, 2025 2:32 pm I remember Mac once saying that even he hated playing against lefties.

Out of all prominent lefties JMac has the 3rd best percentage against fellow lefties (76.69%). 2nd is Connors with 79.2%. The best is Nadal by a country mile - 87.12%. But IMO this stat is heavily influenced by the fact that Nadal did not have prominent lefty adversary, while JMac and Connors had each other.

Yep. The only lefties I can think of for Nadal were Verdasco and Lopez, both well below his level. For Connors and Mac, don't forget they also had to deal with Vilas, and maybe Mac ran a couple of times into Laconte.

Between 74:and 83, the uso was won only by lefties...connors, orantes, vilas, mcenroe.

Friday 14 March, 2025 (Day 13)

Stadium 1
Starts At 11:00 AM

SF
M. Arevalo/M. Pavic (1) Vs (WC) C. Harrison/E. King
Followed By
SF
S. Korda/J. Thompson Vs (Alt) F. Romboli/J. Smith
Not Before 4:00 PM
M. Andreeva (9) Vs I. Swiatek (2)
Not Before 06:00 PM
A. Sabalenka (1) or L. Samsonova (24) vs Madison Keys (5)

Stadium 3
Not Before 01:30 PM

Mixed Doubles · Final
S. Errani 1 /A. Vavassori 1 or D. Krawczyk 4/ N. Skupski 4 vs B. Mattek-Sands 3/M. Pavic 3 or J. Peers/D. Shnaider

Keys' movement is much improved.. she isnt the lumbering hulk she used to be.. good to see.

Keys and Sabalenka are so similar in style .powerful players, both a bit slow to move ..but Keys has improved a lot in that regard..if Keys could bear Saba on the faster courts of Melbourne, she should find it easier here ..?

Maddie beat her in Melbourne, yes. But it wasn't as if that match could not have gone the other way. Those two are evenly matched, with good power and strokes. So, court speed matters nothing in between them. It will simply be who lands more shots in.
Andreeva/Iga... I still say Iga is a better player. But let's see what Conchita gets Andreeva to do. Maybe bring Iga to the net, where she is no good?

Yes, and Andreeva has a devastating lob....

When players are otherwise evenly matched..isn't that precisely where the court speed can make the 5% difference?

But I must say, Keys and Sabalenka are so similar in their games that it is hard to say how the court speed will affect the match...one way to look at is- The slow court will favor the player who can finish points, and speed/Defence will be less important. That is Sabalenka...

Please note .I don't get to see any of these matches where I live, so I will have to rely on you folks to tell me. Also, why do I get into all these complex calculations? Because that is all I CAN do, can't see the match..!

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 14, 2025 12:31 pm When players are otherwise evenly matched..isn't that precisely where the court speed can make the 5% difference?

The choice of balls would be more a factor to me.
The court speed does come into effect when they are that close. An example could be Pete/Andre. Andre was never able to beat Pete at a "fast" slam; Pete beat him 6 times between the USO and W. But Pete could not beat Andre at either RG or the Aussie. Of course, the styles were so radically different that they could account for that.
I say Maddie/Aryna are even, but they are different. Aryna's BH is better than Maddie's, enough to make a difference. But Maddie's net game is better than Aryna's. So I wonder what happens when Maddie approaches the net on Aryna's BH.

And I in the same boat as you are (figuratively, because I am on a real boat right now). Can't see the matches. All I can do is see the stats.

I feel I hear more players complain/comment on balls and wind more than court speed (and surface when it's blue clay). Court speed is more noted when it's on the extreme side. I've never been a good enough player to notice subtle court speeds, but I do know a slow court.

The whole tournament up to the semis has been on T2, so probably very few of us have actually been watching. I think it's on ESPN from the semis on.

Temps in the high 50F's tonight.

Saturday 15 March, 2025 (Day 14)

Stadium 1
Starts At 11:00 AM


A. Muhammad/D. Schuurs Vs T. Mihalikova/O. Nicholls
Not Before 1:30 PM
SF
H. Rune (12) Vs (5) D. Medvedev
Followed By
SF
J. Draper (13) Vs (2) C. Alcaraz
Not Before 6:00 PM
F
M. Arevalo/M. Pavic (1) Vs S. Korda/J. Thompson