Not only that. I am very surprised, in a positive way, by the response of several international actors. That Switzerland abandoned its historical neutrality was unexpected (to me). Sweden too, and that together with Finland they are openly talking about joining NATO is also well received. I really felt that the west would not give a rodent's ass about Ukraine, and that the Russian army would efficiently march into Kiyv, very much like they took over Crimea.
So, I was right about Vlad trying to take over Ukraine (my piece I wrote in 2014). But after that, I have not called any single shot of this war right. By now, I don't think Russia keeps Ukraine. It seems the sole accomplishment by Putin will be to have solidly unified the West, completely make NATO a total necessity and an organization that will not dissolve any time soon, and pull Russia out from the international community. Heck, it may even make China reconsider any possible actions against Taiwan, even though China would be way better prepared to withstand economic actions.
I will try to refrain from any further geopolitical analysis again. I will stick solely to tennis.
(Wait. I am not good at that either... )